Hello r/njpw
We’re getting closer and closer to the end of the tournament, and A Block has shifted fairly significantly. We’ve had people climb, we’ve had people drop, and we’ve had people fall out of contention entirely. However, with two shows left, a lot can still happen, so let’s look into things.
Starting from this post, I’ll be diving deeper into draws. I did start taking ties into account in the last B Block post (as I mentioned there, ties results will hold less weight in the chances), but here, I’ll be including chances people have of getting to the finals via deadlock draw.
As usual, [you may also view my BOSJ 31 results summary page here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oyGCGPPeZdeUNJUOjWIHctvEiLqny1TnK9s__R9f3u4/edit?usp=sharing&rm=minimal). I’m manually updating it as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a summary of the top 20 best matches of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings).
With all that out of the way, let’s have a look at the A Block Standings.
# A Block Standings
|Name|Faction|Score|Record|Status|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Titan|Los Ingobernables de Japon|10|5-2|In|
|El Desperado|Main Unit|10|5-2|In|
|HAYATA|Pro Wrestling NOAH|8|4-3|In|
|Clark Connors|BULLET CLUB War Dogs|8|4-3|In|
|Blake Christian|ROH|8|4-3|In|
|TJP|UNITED EMPIRE|6|3-4|In|
|Kevin Knight|Main Unit|6|3-4|Slim Odds (<1%)|
|BUSHI|Los Ingobernables de Japon|6|3-4|Slim Odds (<1%), Tie Only|
|Kosei Fujita|TMDK|4|2-5|Out|
|Yoshinobu Kanemaru|HOUSE OF TORTURE|4|2-5|Out|
We’ve finally gotten our first set of eliminations for A Block, along with a new set of block leaders. However, will it stay that way? Let’s talk about what these guys are facing, starting with the new block leader …
# 1) Titan
* 10 pts: 5 wins, 2 losses
* 74.5% to go to the playoffs:
* 51.0% as #1
* 47.3% as sole #1
* 3.7% in a tie for #1
* 23.4% as #2
* 21.9% as sole #2
* 1.5% in a tie for #2
* Best Wins: Despe \[10\], HAYATA \[8\]
* Worst Losses: Connors \[8\], Christian \[8\]
This past show was a very good one for Titan. He beat a rival, he gained some points, the two guys he lost to previously have fallen down the ranks, and he owns wins over the two guys below him in ranking. Pretty much everything went well for Titan on this show.
It’s not all guaranteed though. Even at 12, he still runs the risk of getting overtaken by Despe, or getting caught up to by Connors or Christian. However, he would need at least two of these guys to win both of their remaining matches. Plus, he’s golden if he himself wins both of his remaining matches, so he’s not in a huge amount of danger.
As I mentioned on the previous A Block post, all of Titan’s match-ups are settled, and now that he’s got the point lead, all he has to worry about is winning. As long as he stays winning, he’s going to the playoffs. That means beating Kanemaru on the next show, and TJP on the final A Block day.
# 2) El Desperado
* 8 pts: 4 wins, 2 losses
* 73.4% to go to the playoffs:
* 38.9% as #1
* 35.4% as sole #1
* 3.5% in a tie for #1
* 34.5% as #2
* 31.4% as sole #2
* 3.1% in a tie for #2
* Best Wins: Connors \[8\], Christian \[8\]
* Worst Losses: Titan \[10\]
Despite how the match ended, this past show was good for Despe’s BOSJ chances. The only technical negative is Titan winning and making 10 alongside him. Still, #2 is a solid position, and with his only loss being against the block leader, he’s still in good shape to qualify for the playoffs.
Looking at Despe’s and Titan’s overall chances to make the playoffs, they have very similar odds, but breaking it down to which place they’ll be, it’s clear that Titan is more likely to come out as #1, while Despe is more likely to come out as #2. Considering their head-to-head result, that’s no surprise.
There’s just one more important match-up to settle, that being against Hayata on the final day. Outside of people overtaking him, Hayata is the only other person who has the chance to threaten Despe’s playoffs chances. If Hayata makes it to 12 (in the process beating Despe), then Despe’s chances drop significantly. On the other hand, if Despe beats Hayata on the last A Block show, he is a lock for the playoffs, regardless of how his match with TJP goes on the 26th.
# 3) HAYATA
* 8 points: 4 wins, 3 losses
* 23.5% to go to the playoffs
* 6.9% as #1
* 5.3% as sole #1
* 1.6% in a tie for #1
* 16.6% as #2
* 12.6% as sole #2
* 4.0% in a tie for #2
* Best Wins: Christian \[8\]
* Worst Losses: Titan \[10\], Connors \[8\]
Hayata’s managed to leap frog his way from the bottom half of the block all the way to the top 3, thanks to several key losses and his own beating of Kevin Knight. He’s been languishing in the dregs of A block for most of the tournament, but all of a sudden, he’s within an arm’s reach of the playoffs.
A lot of that has to do with his open match with Despe on the final A Block day. His prior loss to Titan is gonna make it very hard for Hayata to take the #1 spot, but if he can at least beat Despe and match him in points, he can at least take #2. This also requires him winning his other remaining match against Kosei Fujita on the 26th, since he’s a step behind the point leaders, so he needs to prepare for that as well.
# 4) Clark Connors
* 8 points: 4 wins, 3 losses
* 18.9% to go to the playoffs
* 6.0% as #1
* 3.7% as sole #1
* 2.3% in a tie for #1
* 12.9% as #2
* 10.8% as sole #2
* 2.1% in a tie for #2
* Best Wins: Titan \[10\], HAYATA \[8\]
* Worst Losses: Despe \[10\], Christian \[8\]
Connors made a costly sacrifice on this past show. Taking the DQ loss to Despe has cost him his #2 spot in the block, and now he’s fallen down to 4th.
Still, it’s not all lost, as his prior win over Titan could help him eke out 2nd place. However, he is still at risk of being overtaken by both Despe and Titan, so just winning both his matches won’t be enough. He’s gonna need Titan to lose at least once, or Despe to lose twice. He also needs to watch out for Blake Christian, because if Christian does well, it’ll put even more pressure on Connors. Thus, Clark Connors is in a delicate position, even compared to his fellow 8-pointer Hayata.
However, even though it won’t be enough by itself, he’ll still need to win to have a shot at the playoffs, and Connors’ remaining matches are a pair of meaningful ones. His former LA Dojo mate Kevin Knight on the 26th and Kanemaru on the 30th. If he keeps letting his temper get the best of him, it may lead to further ruin.
# 5) Blake Christian
* 8 points: 4 wins, 3 losses
* 17.7% to go to the playoffs
* 5.4% as #1
* 3.1% as sole #1
* 2.2% in a tie for #1
* 12.3% as #2
* 10.9% as sole #2
* 1.4% in a tie for #2
* Best Wins: Titan \[10\], Connors \[8\]
* Worst Losses: Despe \[10\], HAYATA \[8\]
Blake Christian is in much the same position Clark Connors. Before this past show, they were #1 and #2. Now, they’re #5 and #4. Connors managed to stay above Christian, though, as his win over Hayata is more valuable than Christian’s win over him.
As a result, Christian and Connors have very similar chances. Instead, he has to watch out for Hayata doing well. Conversely, his last two matches aren’t very momentous. Bushi on the 26th and Fujita on the 30th. As I mentioned last time, these should be winnable matches, but then again, I said the same thing about his match with TJP, and look how that turned out.
# 6) TJP
* 6 points: 3 wins, 4 losses
* 3.2% to go to the playoffs
* 0.4% as #1
* 0.3% as sole #1
* 0.2% in a tie for #1
* 2.8% as #2
* 1.4% as sole #2
* 1.4% in a tie for #2
* Biggest Wins: HAYATA \[8\], Christian \[8\]
* Worst Losses: Connors \[8\]
TJP continues to hang in the competition, improving his chances ever so slightly. However, being on 6 points and being 4 points behind the leaders, he’s still a longshot, and will need tons of help to qualify for the playoffs.
First and foremost, he’ll need to win both of his remaining matches. We’ll get to those in a second. In addition to that, he’ll need a lot of people above him to lose a match or two. With his ceiling at 10, he’s screwed if two people make 12, which can happen as soon as this next show. His best shot is for someone to break away at 12 or 14, and for him to come out on top of a massive pile-up at 10. In order to come out cleanly from that pile-up, though, he’ll need a lot of good wins. He does have a few, as his recent wins over Hayata and Christian can certainly aid in that sort of situation, but to survive a pile-up of 5 or even 6 people, he’ll need more than that.
Which brings us back to TJP’s remaining matches. Boy, if TJP wants some high-value wins, he has the opportunity to do so, as his remaining matches are against the two current block leaders of A Block: El Desperado on the 26th and Titan on the 30th. Of everyone in A Block, TJP has the biggest matches, so he’ll be one to watch out for in the coming days. Of course, it could all be for nothing, as he could just get overtaken by any of the 8-pointers, and even if he beats both Despe and Titan, they could just win their other match and both overtake him, rendering his victories useless. Still, it’s all TJP can hope for, and what he needs to cling to if he still hopes to make the playoffs.
# 7) Kevin Knight
* 6 points: 3 wins, 4 losses
* 0.6% to go to the playoffs
* 0.02% in a tie for #1
* 0.6% as #2
* 0.1% as sole #2
* 0.5% in a tie for #2
* Biggest Wins: Despe \[10\]
* Worst Losses: Titan \[10\], Christian \[8\], HAYATA \[8\]
Another person to have a bad night this past show is Kevin Knight. While his chances weren’t high previously, the loss to Hayata in combination with the rest of the show has caused him to drop to sub-1% chances. He’s got the same score as Hayata, but with way more significant losses. With 3 of his 4 losses coming from people with more points than him, it seems as though Knight’s tournament hopes are nearing their end. We’ll see if he survives the next show.
For the mean time, let’s just focus on his matches. He’s got his big match with Clark Connors on the next show before finishing his tournament off against Bushi. Can things turn around for the Jet?
# 8) BUSHI
* 6 points: 3 wins, 4 losses
* 0.2% to go to the playoffs in a tie for #2
* Biggest Wins: None
* Worst Losses: Titan \[10\], Despe \[10\], HAYATA \[8\], Connors \[8\]
Bushi did, in fact, survive the last show, but not by much. He has no valuable wins, and 4 major losses to his name. His only chance left to qualify for the playoffs is through a tie for 2nd, which is not an ideal thing to rely on. He does have one more big match left (vs Blake Christian on the next show) before facing someone who’s also on thin ice in Kevin Knight, but I doubt winning either match is gonna significantly improve his chances. Really, I think it’s best we move on from Bushi as quickly as possible.
# 9) Kosei Fujita
* 4 points: 2 wins, 5 losses
* Eliminated from contention
And we finally get to our firsts et of contention eliminations for A Block. First up is young Kosei Fujita, who’s on the opposite end of the block from where his TMDK brother is over in B Block. Yes, after losing the opening match of this past show to Titan, Fujita lost all hope of main-eventing Dominion this year. His remaining matches will be against people who, as of now, are still in contention: Hayata on the 26th and Blake Christian on the 30th. Now that he’s out of the running, all Fujita can hope to do is to take out a couple of guys before the tournament ends.
# 10) Yoshinobu Kanemaru
* 4 points: 2 wins, 5 losses
* Eliminated from contention
Lastly, we have Yoshinobu Kanemaru. He’s out too, but he also has some fun matches to look forward to. He’s got the block leader Titan on the next show, which would be a juicy win, and Bullet Club mate Clark Connors on the last day. We’ll see if Uncle Nobu still has some fight left in him.
# Draw Possibilities
Next, we’ll touch on the draw outcomes. The results in A Block are all over the place, and there are many combinations of exact draws that could still happen, for both the #1 and #2 spot. I’ve counted 14 different 3-way deadlocks, so I won’t go through them all. What I will describe, however, are the biggest draws still in effect. There are a handful of 5-way deadlocks that can still happen.
First is a 5-way tie for 1st, involving everyone currently at 8 points and above. This would happen if all five of them make 12 points. That would need:
* Clark Connors to beat Knight & Kanemaru
* Blake Christian to beat Fujita & BUSHI
* HAYATA to beat Fujita and **Despe**
* Despe to beat TJP but lose to **HAYATA**
* Titan to beat only one of TJP and Kanemaru
Hayata-Despe is the only match between the 5 to not have been settled yet, and that’s happening on the final day, so this possibility still has a long way to travel.
The other 5-way tie is a bit crazy, and it involves a 7-way tie at 10 points to breakdown with one winner, one loser, and an exact 5-way tie in the middle. Here’s what needs to happen:
* Kevin Knight to beat both BUSHI and **Connors**
* TJP to beat both **Despe and Titan**
* Clark Connors to beat Kanemaru but lose to Knight
* Blake Christian to beat one of Fujita & BUSHI
* HAYATA to beat **Despe** but lose to Fujita
* Despe to lose to both **TJP and Hayata**
* Titan to lose to both **TJP** and Kanemaru
In this configuration, the winner is actually TJP, as he’ll have 4 head-to-head wins (Despe, Titan, Christian, and HAYATA), while the loser will be Despe, as he only has 2 (Christian & Connors). If we look at the results among all 7 of these wrestlers, then the rest will be caught in a deadlock with 3 wins each. However, if we break the tie by seeing the head-to-head results among only the 5, then it would be Blake Christian taking the #2 spot, as he’d have 3 head-to-head wins here (Knight, Titan, and Connors.
# What’s Next?
The next show will be an interesting one for A Block. All 5 of the 8/10-pointers will be competing in separate matches. Yes, it’s the top of the block vs the bottom of the block, and though most of the bottom of the block has very little chance to make the playoffs (with it being impossible for some), Expect some wild swings. All 5 of the top contenders could win and solidify themselves as the true contenders going into the last day. They could all lose and re-flatten the block. More likely, it’ll be a mixture of wins and losses, so keep an eye out for which top contender wins their match.
That’ll do for this post. The next show is still a few days away. It’ll be another combined block show, as A Block sets the stage for the final block day, while B Block will still have another show left. I’m still deciding whether or not to delay the last A Block summary and combine it with the last B Block summary, or if I should just keep them separate. If I separate them, then the Semi-Finals preview will have to go in the B Block post. I’ll take feedback and suggestions, if anyone cares.
Until then, thanks for reading! See you next post.
by MarcoTalin
