G1 Climax Bracketology 2024

Hello everyone. About a year ago I made this post after the G1 ended projecting the field for 2024. A lot has changed since then. Let's take a look at the projected field now that we're only a little bit away from it again. I'm operating under the assumption the format remains unchanged from last year until I hear otherwise. My apologies if I miss an injury or something like that. I will note that I usually lose touch with NJPW a bit in the late winter/early spring due to school and college basketball taking up a ton of time so if there's anything that I just missed let me know and I'll correct it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/njpw/comments/15k6ltf/way_too_early_g1_climax_2024_look_ahead/

Locks from last year:

1. SANADA
2. Yota Tsuji
3. Ren Narita
4. Shota Umino
5. ELP – Making a note that his contract stuff could throw a wrench into this, but I don't think AEW or WWE are coming calling for him either. Feel good about his spot in the field this year.
6. Great O'Khan
7. KENTA
8. Taichi
9. David Finlay
10. EVIL
11. Shingo Takagi
12. Jeff Cobb
13. Tetsuya Naito
14. Zack Sabre Jr
15. Hiroshi Tanahashi – Was at probably back last year for me, would be shocked if he wasn't in it this year after losing as many people as they did.
16. Toru Yano – Was on the bubble due to age, will likely be in the field again after the roster lost some depth
17. Tomohiro Ishii – Same as Yano
18. Hirooki Goto – Same as Yano and Ishii
19. Gabe Kidd – Had him on the bubble since he was a sub for a departing Aussie Open member, since then has solidified his spot on the roster and in the field.
20. Henare – Had him on the bubble on the chance NJPW loaded up with new talent or overhauled their field. Neither seems likely to happen after last years departures.
21. Yoshi Hashi – Same as Henare, plus being cut from the 20 person field is telling of your standing.
22. Shane Haste – The better worker of the TMDK main tag team, felt like his spot last year came about from needing to fill up the field, which is why I placed him on the bubble. They will need to fill up the field again this year so no real shot he's cut.
23. Mikey Nichols – See above, minus the better worker part.

Potential Guest Spots

1. AEW – Seems like this will be something that 100% happens again. It won't be Eddie Kingston again, as his knee injury will keep him out for a long while. Lance Archer could easily return as well. No clue who else could be on the radar. Konosuke Takashita perhaps? That would be awesome.

2. Japanese Guest – Filling the Kaito Kiyomiya role from last year. Seems pretty likely this will happen too, especially since the last few round robins NJPW has run all featured guests from outside promotions. Could be Kaito again here, could be someone else as well. I'm not super familiar as to who would be likely or able to be in it otherwise, but it feels like a good bet that someone from outside the NJPW ranks will participate. Decent shot this is Jake Lee, so for now I'll say this is him/Kaito

Ok so that's 25 spots filled for sure. Let's look at some likely debuts to the field(Side note, I do not know why the hell I cannot locate the roster page on NJPW's site. Whole thing looks different and not easy to track anything down on. I'm using Smackdown Hotel's roster list instead)

1. Yuya Uemura – Easily the biggest lock to debut. Feels like guy number 4 of the R3M. Already a singles champion. He will be in this tournament.

2. Boltin Oleg – A part of the 6 man tag champions and declared a month or so ago he's no longer a YL. I think he's likely in the field. Less solid on that than Yuya but it's very likely he's there.

Dropped off since last year:

1. Kazuchika Okada – Signed with AEW
2. Will Ospreay – Signed with AEW
3. Tama Tonga – Had him as a probably in due to his contract, now is signed to WWE
4. Tanga Loa – Was on the bubble due to being awful, is now signed with WWE
5. Alex Coughlin – Retired due to a neck injury

Likely Not Competing:

1. Bad Luck Fale – Please do not do this NJPW. Never thought I'd see someone less mobile than late stage Big Show but well…
2. All of the dads – Honma, Kojima, Tenzan, Makabe, Ngata, and anyone else I may have missed. They've all been out for a bit and are older
3. Minoru Suzuki – 55 years old, hasn't been in the field in a while and doesn't appear to be working New Japan anymore.
4. Jack Perry – Just went back to AEW and is a part of a major story there
5. Jon Moxley – While he is the champ right now I can't imagine AEW is giving him up for that long, and he likely wont even have it by the time the tournament starts.
6. El Desperado – Mentioned him last time as an outside shot to add, but given he's likely winning BOSJ this year feels like that's for another year if it were to happen
7. Taiji Ishimori – Mentioned him last time too, his size makes it a bit tough to move him up, even with kayfabing, and he's also in the BOSJ finals.
8. KUSHIDA – Another Jr I tossed around last year due to wanting to be in it for a bit. Him being cut originally from BOSJ could either be taken as a very good or very bad sign for his chances. I'm leaning towards the bad unfortunately. KUSHIDA would be awesome in the G1.

Now that we have all that settled, there's still 4 spots to go. Here's who's left on the bubble for me:

1. Chase Owens – Yeah….. I know guys. Seemed like a lock to get cut and then a ton of people left. Probably was man number 32 in last years field. This year he's been a champion and still is. It seems probable he will be in the field.
2. Yujiro Takahashi – Was the only HW left out last year who can still in the literal sense of the word go. He cannot actually go. I would like to think they will be looking elsewhere for the tournament
3. Hiromu Takahashi – Been some speculation for a while that he may move up or go openweight, as he beats HWs from time to time, has not a lot left to do as a Jr, and even competes for the HW title sometimes. The Dominion main event not including him might be a sign he's going to move on or get the nod? We'll see.
4. TJP – Feels likely. Just beat Taichi on a Japanese show, which is massive. The current leader of the United Empire and there's been mentions about him being openweight now. Since he also competes with the Jrs we'll see, just like with Hiromu doing the double shot is pretty rare.
5. Fred Rosser – With all the spots open there will probably be a STRONG rep who makes the field. Not a guarantee given last year(unless you count Eddie) but he's one of the top guys there. Only thing holding me back is competition from the next name and that I've heard buzz he might be transitioning out of the ring soon. No clue the validity of that
6. Tom Lawler – I have no idea why he wasn't in the field last year if we're being honest. Maybe the top name in STRONG and can still go, plus has competed in the G1 before. I think he's in but it's tough to bet on it for sure when he was cut once and we don't really know why
7. Callum Newman – Feels positive on his front. I personally thought he was a Jr and then he's feuding with Naito and not in the BOSJ field. Doesn't feel like a stone cold lock but does feel pretty right to join the field.
8. A Tamashii Rep – I do not know this promotion or much about the guys listed in there so I cannot project who could be in or how likley they are. It doesn't feel like a big enough deal to warrant a rep but who knows.
9. Hikuleo – If he resigns he's in it. The contract situation makes me wonder a lot and I considered just leaving him out entirely since I think he's WWE bound when his contract ends this month. He and ELP(who I don't think is leaving) will have their statuses more clear after tomorrow/tonight.
10. Ryohei Oiwa – IIRC he started his transition around the same time as Kosei Fujita did, which puts him on track to be back I think. He has announced himself for NOAH shows already so that could be a sign his excursion continues but that also isn't a guarantee he won't be here either. It would feel like a very short excursion though.
11. An extra guest/surprise wrestler – Nic Nemeth feels like a possibility, as did Matt Riddle until he did Matt Riddle things. My overall thoughts are a solid maybe? We'll see. Not impossible they grab an extra AEW guy or a 2nd rep from another promotion in Japan

Alright, at long last, here's my projected field for this year's G1 climax. Ordered roughly by how likely they will be in(please don't kill me for putting locks 4 and 5 in the wrong order, for example):

1. Tetsuya Naito
2. Sanada
3. EVIL
4. Zack Sabre Jr
5. David Finlay
6. Yota Tsuji
7. Shota Umino
8. Ren Narita
9. Yuya Uemura
10. Shingo Takagi
11. Gabe Kidd
12. Taichi
13. Jeff Cobb
14. Great O'Khan
15. El Phantasmo
16. Hiroshi Tanahashi
17. Henare
18. Tomohiro Ishii
19. Hirooki Goto
20. KENTA
21. Toru Yano
22. Lance Archer/Konosuke Takashita
23. Jake Lee/Kaito Kiyomiya
24. Shane Haste
25. Mikey Nichols
26. Yoshi Hashi
27. Boltin Oleg
28. Chase Owens
29. TJP
30. Callum Newman
31. Nic Nemeth Tom Lawler
32. Hiromu Takahashi

What do you guys think? Any glaring omissions? If Hikuleo does resign I think he'll take one of Hiromu, Callum, or Boltins spots.