Hello r/njpw

We're now on the final Block summary post for A Block, and boy, what a twisty turny show it was. A few upsets, a few surprises, and 7 people still alive going into the final day. It's the wild west out there for A Block, and it's anyone's game. Who will wlak out of the fracas and into the semi-finals? Let's try to break it down.

As usual, you may also view my BOSJ 31 results summary page here. I'm manually updating it as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a summary of the top 20 best matches of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings).

With all that out of the way, let's have a look at the standings

A Block Standings

I'd have to go back to check, but I can't remember off the top of my head when was the last time every single match on the last day of a 10-man block mattered for who advanced to the playoffs. Even in a format where the top 2 advance, it doesn't happen that much, and that's exactly what we have on our hands here in A Block. All the contenders are spread out, and there are still many, many, many ways A Block can go. Because of that, I'll only be doing the simple version of my usual results table (if I did one with ties, it'd have 243 rows and 7 columns).

Here are the matches for the final A Block day on the 30th. At the current time of writing, the official order hasn't been released, but this is the order in terms of how important each match will be:

• Kevin Knight vs BUSHI
• Clark Connors vs Yoshinobu Kanemaru
• Blake Christian vs Kosei Fujita
• Titan vs TJP
• El Desperado vs HAYATA

Because of the Despe-Hayata match, the minimum top score in the block is 11. That means that anyone at 8 points cannot possibly take the #1 spot. Also, because Blake Christian lost to both Despe & Hayata, the only way Christian can take the #1 spot is if they draw, or if both he and Titan make 12, creating a three-way tie with the winner of Despe-Hayata.

You'll also see from the above that both Kevin Knight and Clark Connors are listed as "Tie Only". I've already mentioned that they cannot make #1, but even at 10 points, it'll be difficult to clear the way. I'll get into it in the breakdown, but in short, if either of them are tied for 2nd at 10, a lot of people will be on 10.

With all those in mind, let's break this block down.

First, El Desperado vs HAYATA

It's impossible to talk about how A Block will turn out without talking about what will likely main event the show: Despe vs Hayata. Because of the way the block is lined up with the matches, scores, and such, It is almost guaranteed that at least one of these two will go to the playoffs. The only case that I'll be going over where neither one figures into the playoff decision. Otherwise, every outcome in A Block involves one or both of these guys.

The easiest way to go over things is to use this result. I'll split it into two groups: If Despe vs Hayata goes to a proper result (win/lose), or if it ends up in a draw.

Case 1: Either Despe or Hayata wins (no draw)

Let's start with this. It's simple: whoever wins goes to the playoffs, while the other can't. The only question would be whether the winner takes the #1 or the #2 spot, or if there'll be a larger deadlock, but that depends on who else qualifies, and what their score is.

Case 1a: Exactly one of Christian and Titan wins/draws

When figuring out who the other person will be, this is the simplest possibility. Titan and Blake Christian are the only other guys at 10, and if at least one of them makes points, the results of Connors' and Knight's matches don't matter.

In this case, only 2 people have a score above 10: the winner of Despe vs Hayata, and whoever wins/draws between Christian & Titan, so those are the two going to the playoffs from A Block.

Because of how the match-ups work out, the question of who is #1 and #2 is easy to answer. Christian lost to both Despe and Hayata, while Titan beat both Despe and Hayata. Thus, if Christian is the one to win/draw, he's #2 by default, while Despe/Hayata take #1. For Titan, if he wins his match, he takes #1, and Despe/Hayata take #2. However, if Titan can only manage a draw, then he'll only be #2.

Case 1b: One of Christian and Titan wins, while the other draws

This is more of an addendum to 1a. If both both Christian and Titan make points, but one draws and the other wins, then the one who won will be the one to advance, and 1a rules apply. Just wanted that to be clear.

Case 1c: Both Christian and Titan draw

We start venturing into ambiguity here, but it's not too complicated. In this case, Despe/Hayata is at 12, while both Christian and Titan are at 11, causing a slight tie for 2nd. However, it's easily broken. Christian has the win over Titan, so he's the one taking 2nd.

Case 1d: Both Christian and Titan win

Things get a bit more complicated if both Christian and Titan make it to 12. If that happens, it becomes a deadlock tie for #1 between Christian, Titan, and Despe/Hayata, since Christian beat Despe/Hayata, Despe/Hayata beat Christian, and Christian beat Titan.

Case 1e: Both Christian and Titan lose, Connors loses/draws

This is where things get really messy. If Blake Christian loses, then he stays at 10. If Titan loses, then he also stays at 10, but more importantly, TJP makes 10 as well. With the loser of Despe vs Hayata also staying at 10 points, we're looking at a minimum of 4 people on 10 points, and up to 6 depending on how Connors and Knight do.

However, looking at just the base 4, a clear winner arises, and that's TJP. TJP beat Despe, Hayata, and Blake Christian, and will have beaten Titan in this situation. Everyone else would only have one win among the 4. TJP would be a clear #2 if no one else made 10 points. Even if Kevin Knight makes it to 10, he won't change things, because although he's beaten TJP, he'd only have one other win (over Despe), and adding Knight doesn't give anyone else enough wins to match TJP. Thus, if we get this big pile-up at 10, and Connors isn't involved, TJP handily takes #2

Case 1f: Both Christian and Titan lose, Connors wins

Things change, however, if Clark Connors gets thrown in the mix.

First, something that doesn't change. If Hayata beats Despe and Knight doesn't make 10, then it's a 5-way tie at 10 points. However, Connors only has 2 wins, while TJP has his aforementioned 3, so TJP still takes 2nd.

However, if Despe is the one to beat Hayata, then Connors makes his 3 wins to tie TJP, since he beat Hayata. This would create a 2-way tie for 2nd between TJP and Connors. I'm not sure what the rules are for breaking this tie, but if they do a 2nd round of head-to-head matchup checks, then Connors would take #2 with his win over TJP.

If we add Kevin Knight to the mix, however, then we have our full 6-man pile-up at 10 points. With both Connors and Knight added, Blake Christian is able to make his 3 wins, tying TJP. However, the last piece of this puzzle depends on who wins between Despe and Hayata. If Hayata wins, then Knight makes 3 wins with his wins over Despe, TJP, and Connors. If Despe wins, then Connors makes 3 wins, using Titan, TJP, and Hayata. As a result, if Kevin Knight wins, it'll be a 3-way tie, either with TJP, Christian, and Knight, or TJP, Christian and Connors.

Ad far as I know, this is the only way Knight can factor into the playoffs decision.

Case 2: Despe and Hayata draw

The second set of cases occur if Despe & Hayata draw. Because they're both block leaders, it's still fairly likely that they'll be within range of the top 2. In fact, as I mentioned earlier, there's only one way where they don't factor into the playoffs decision. More on that in a bit.

The other thing to mention is that because this result means two people make 11, no one at 8 can factor in anymore. That mean Connors, TJP, and Knight. Thus, it comes down between these two, Christian, and Titan, so these will be the only names you'll see in this corner.

Case 2a: Christian wins, Titan wins/draws

Let's start with the cleanest outcome. If both Christian and Titan win, then both will overtake Despe and Hayata, and both of them will go to the playoffs. Christian beat Titan, so he takes #1, while Titan takes #2. Hell, even if Titan draws his own match and finishes with 11, his wins over both Despe and Hayata means he still overtakes them, and he still takes #2.

Case 2b: Christian loses/draws, Titan loses

However, if neither Christian nor Titan can clear 10, or if Christian can only make 11 (losing out on the playoffs with his prior losses to Despe & Hayata), then Despe and Hayata will be the two moving on to the playoffs. Because they'll have drawn in this situation, I don't know who takes #1 and #2. Maybe they'll flip a coin for it. It wouldn't be the first time New Japan settled an exact tie like that.

Case 2c: Christian wins, Titan loses

Here, Christian is the only one to clear the Despe-Hayata draw, so he takes #1, while Despe & Hayata take #2 in their draw.

Case 2d: Christian loses/draws, Titan wins/draws

Lastly, this situation is the reverse of 2c. Titan clears the draw while Christian does not, so Titan takes #1 and the Despe-Hayata draw takes #2. This one is a bit more likely than 2c though thanks to the match-ups.

And that covers everything. Let's look at the results table (without draws)

Boy, that's a long table, and that's without draw results.

What's Next?

It's a bit hard to quickly summarize all of these points, but here's my best attempt at a tl;dr

• For Despe, Hayata, Titan, and Christian, a win means the playoffs, though some of these results may come from 3-way ties
• For TJP, if he wins, Christian loses, and Despe vs Hayata doesn't go to a draw, then he goes to the playoffs
• For Connors and Knight, if they win, Christian loses, TJP beats Titan, and Despe vs Hayata doesn't go to a draw, then they have a chance of being in a draw for #2.
  • Also, Knight cannot go to the playoffs if Connors loses, but Connors can form a draw without Knight.

And with all of that done, That does it for A Block. The next show will be the last one for the block, and there we will crown the A Block winners.

As for B Block, at the time of writing, B Block is just about settled, so I'll be working on putting that post together. B Block seems to be a lot more straightforward, so expect it to be significantly shorter. A Block really is just a mess. That post will also have a preview of the Semi-Finals match-ups.

Until then, thanks for reading! See you next post.