While it's still far too early for any accurate 2024 kōyō forecast, the record from previous years still represents a useful baseline for early trip planning. Confusingly, though, there seems to be a consistent discrepancy between kōyō front isoline maps (for example ) and peak foliage dates for specific sites (for example ) in Tohoku. The former suggest that early to mid-November, or even a bit later, is a good baseline for planning (assuming an itinerary that would cover most of the North-South range of the region), while the latter mostly imply that mid-October to early November would be best. (The Japan Guide map and site list are more consistent, and imply that the earlier period would be better, but the map doesn't include any information on the source data, making it difficult to judge the reliability, whereas many of the other maps clearly distinguish between long-term average and 2023 dates, providing a useful sense of how much deviation from average there was last year.)
Can anyone with significant experience of traveling in Tohoku (or even elsewhere in Japan) at this time of year comment on this apparent contradiction? Is it perhaps that the isoline maps tend to ignore altitude, and are more representative of when peak foliage would be encountered in cities rather than mountainous areas, for example? If so, presumably the earlier dates based on top kōyō viewing locations would represent a better guide for travel planning?
by kulahleudoti