I remember in February or March of this year, some finance bro posted here saying that the yen would hit 180 by the end of the year and everyone laughed at him. He continued to say that the yen could hit 250 within 2-3 years…
Well, yen just hit 162 and it's only July. I know that we get paid in yen, but sliding this much against the dollar does impact us greatly since Japan is such an import intensive nation. I mean surely everyone must be feeling the inflation by now too, right? Everything is at least 10-20% more expensive AND the portions are smaller now too.
I'm seriously wondering if the move is to transfer back to America for a few years to save up some money and come back once things stabilize. But WILL things stabilize? Why is Japan getting hit so much harder than Korea or Taiwan? Japan is America's strongest ally in Asia and 4th largest GDP in the world (formerly third), doesn't make sense that the yen would hit 250 but it really seems to be going in that direction at a fast rate.
by FlatEarthworms
37 comments
Based on my friends living in the US, they say they can have a fancy meal in Tokyo that would have cost a fortune and now it is pretty cheap. When jobs at Nvidia are like paying $200-$300k per year in salary, it becomes stupid to not consider moving to the U.S. as an investment
Damn is it that bad? And me wanting to move there. I think right now it’s tough everywhere
if you can go back to the US, go. if shit stabilizes here and you’re still feeling it, come back.
japan’s becoming a poor country and lifestyle destination for westerners tbh. unless you have strong family ties or need to be here for one reason or another, there’s no financial advantage to stay.
The real question though is like, what does Japan make that people want? The solution to all problems is sales, but what does Japan make now that would lead it back to an upward trajectory?
I mean there’s robotics and cars, some chip making …. and that’s kinda it. Couple this with big macro trends like a rapidly aging population, AI coming online (where the bulk of the profits will go to overseas companies) and China investing heavily into (with the intent to dominate) 21st century power generation and EVs (like the $20k BYD EVs that has basically everyone scared shitless), and I think it’s pretty clear the writing is on the wall.
Japan missed out on the internet revolution, missed out on cell phones, missed out on capturing the money fleeing HK after that implosion, is currently not even paying attention to software as a category let alone AI. Is improving (?) at English … I guess? Japan as a whole is just not positioning itself to really do anything meaningful in the next 20 years. And so, yeah the Yen sucks, but it’s a symptom of much deeper malaise.
I’m hanging out here because dollars in Japan are awesome and the US is a bit scary at the moment, but it’s hard to watch the country implode because of just poor decision making and just general not paying attention.
Not really concerned. At some point when people really can’t afford basic necessities the economy will self-correct itself. Besides, by moving to another country you’re just introducing another risk factor
What kind of work do you do that earns dollars?
As for what Japan makes that people want… it’s more micro… but video games and denim!
Wouldn’t risk it honestly, the market is really terrible here. So many companies are laying people off and more and more jobs (yes, even tech) are moving to Mexico and other LATAM countries.
Japan’s carry trade is worth $20 trillion USD globally, and the value of U.S. Treasuries held by Japan is $1.13 trillion USD. Safe.
No problem, that’s a very good thing. Japan is finally changing the structure of its economy, and this is just a temporary blip in that change. The culled people need to be abandoned, and the zombie corporations that have been kept alive by spending huge amounts of taxpayer money to keep the culled inferior people alive need to go bankrupt. The biggest problem in the Japanese economy right now is zombie companies. These subsidized zombie companies are forced to pay a set wage because it is difficult to make a profit, so wages do not rise, causing deflation. In addition, the national budget, which should be used for research and development for the future, is stretched thin by zombie companies, causing Japan to fall behind in technology. Step 1 is the mass bankruptcy of zombie companies. Japanese society can’t innovate because old zombie companies refuse to change.
I’m itching to move back to Tokyo from the US and buy a place there. When I left Yen was <100.
Some finance bro said it so it must be true.
Moving to usa isn’t the answer. This are soo expensive in USA so it’s all relative. At the end of the day you would be paying 4 times as much for rent and food etc in the USA so it is better to stay put
Japan – the country of not looking at the problem and pretending it doesn’t exist in the hopes it will fix itself. This government is run by 100 year old racist and sexist dinosaurs who are still living in the past glory days and have no idea what they are doing. They are even talking about raising taxes again when wages haven’t grown since they were born. NO ONE HAS ANY MONEY. Taxes are absolutely insane. Social insurance is a joke and another scheme to get more money out of peoples pockets. How the hell does it make sense that health insurance increases in tandem with salary increases? To support all the old people who won’t just go into the light? Meanwhile they don’t even have enough people to fill jobs and don’t do anything to incentivize companies to open up outside of Tokyo. Everyone is cramming here because it’s the only place to find jobs increasing cost of living even more. Additionally you have tourists flocking in creating even more artificial inflation. This country is going down the drain.
It has to do with interest rates and interest rates only. They wont correct them for a while and thus the currency will continue to devalue.
The inflation is not cos its against the dollar but the general inflation that is world wide.
Most people in the comment section don’t know jack all about macro-economics i.e. idiots/MMT idiots.
Yes. Japan will have horrible inflation. It is entirely due to the Japanese printing insane amounts of money to pay off their debt 2-3 years ago.
The amount of money printed will take 1-2 decades to stabilized. Assuming the government stopped printing money 2-3 years ago.
I read this article about the weakening yen. It is quite well researched, interesting, and contains ideas that are not mentioned by others in this thread:
https://richardkatz.substack.com/p/yen-going-to-170
Why move back? You’ve got the internet here. Start making USD and you will be enjoying life. There are tons of ways to make money online. People just need to stop making excuses and start doing something.
The Fed will likely cut rates at least once by end of year. Expect 150-ish for a few years unless a Black Swan event (catastrophic recession) happens.
Serious decisions need to be made. Life is getting so expensive. I have to go overseas twice this year and it’s unaffordable, I’m having to cut out things like doctors appointments to cover the cost. I earn yen for an American company, since I joined, my pay has gone “down” 30% due to the movement of the yen, I am such a bargain for the US company. If I moved to NYC tomorrow my pay would skyrocket.
Japan is starting to feel I like a first world country with third world buying power. It will become increasingly unattractive for foreign workers to move here or young Japanese to stay which is compounding the issue into the future for innovation and development.
Even for jobs like nurses – why come here from PH where you will be paid a lower rate than say EU or USA, then due to the exchange rate it’s even lower. This will impact japans talent pool massively. Japan is turning too inward and it’s going to sink the country into very hard economic times.
Cant go a day without a post on it, so I’m guessing that, yes, some other people are concerned.
I’ve been wondering about the same thing to no end. Everything I read about the reasoning never makes much sense… The yen is super undervalued, that’s for sure. To drop it this far, there has to be a targeted and concerted effort, not just by the finance bros, but the government as well. My gut feeling is that the Japanese government wants to keep it as low as possible to attract as much foreign investment as they can, to fill in the income loss during the pandemic. So that’s going to last for another 2 more years…. It’s fucked up anyway….
It’s because many workers from south east asia are sending their money home. It puts a downward pressure on the yen
I for one just moved back to the US after living in Japan for 5 years. Yes things are more expensive here but the salary def makes up for it. I was able to purchase second house right before we moved back early this year thanks to my time in Japan getting paid with a US salary in USD and yen being weak. It doesn’t matter who wins the election later this year, it won’t impact our life much IMO. For the record we are minorities. So yeah if you have a path way to get a job in the US and want to save and build a family, US is still a great place to be!
Tbh I can’t really tell the difference between now, and like 5 years ago 🤷😂😂
It’s more expensive everywhere Japan has started catching up, it sucks.
I’m just gonna say everything on the USA is about 4x as expensive here in Tokyo right now. And people in America (I can only speak from California and Massachusetts and New York though) only make about 1.5x or 2x as much in America as compared to here.
Everyone laughs at the finance bros saying what the exchange rate will be in the future because nobody knows that, and if they are so confident in that opinion that’s where their money would be.
If you’re talking about the guy who I think you’re talking about, people laughed at him because he said that it would hit “200-250 yen/dollar by July” and that the yen would become insolvent, completely collapse and be replaced in use by the dollar by the end of the year. Also, inflation is **definitely** nowhere near “10-20%”, lmao.
No. I am far more concerned for the people back home struggling to make ends meet due to what is borderline hyperinflation.
Go tell the average American family ‘oh wow you are so lucky, your dollar is so strong, where will you be going on holiday too next’. See where that gets you.
Seriously the general lack of basic economic understanding I see displayed on Japan subs makes me think you ALTs are actually overpaid here given how fkn out of touch an uneducated yall are.
Japan artificially keeps its interest rates low and the yen was fundamentally overvalued before because its value as a perceived safe haven currency like the Swiss franc. That’s no longer the case.
Long term, the economy isn’t ever going back to its heydays.
Japan is honest about its’ economy, unlike dishonest Joe Biden. We’re heavy in recession, yet lying Joe will say otherwise. Smoke and mirrors for Lying Joe.
Sell things for American dollars. Pokemon cards is a great start.
Japan has a trade surplus with the US.
I won’t hold my savings in JPY and keep it invested in a strong currency like usd or sgd. Advise most to do the same.
The sad truth that a loud minority denies is that this country is sadly on a down trajectory that won’t change. Idk how far down it will go though.
You fix the yen then what, you have to pay close to 3 times the gdp as debt. By the time that lowers, the average age of the population will be that of someone counting the years until retirement.
Been in denial for a long time, but I don’t see any return to the actual Japan people dream of unless a miracle happens.
Most currencies are weak against usd not just yen.
It’s a non issue if you live locally since prices are tied to the local currencies. Any finance bro will tell you to invest your savings in global equities snd commodities (gold/oil/btc).
Earning, saving and investing in yen basically betting everything on Japan.