Hello r/njpw

It's now time for my final G1 Climax 34 post of the tournament.

It's been a pretty hot tournament. There's been some expectations set by the losses over the past couple of years of some of the top guys in New Japan, such as Kazuchika Okada, Will Ospreay, Jay White, Kota Ibushi, as well as some usual big names missing out the tournament such as Hiroshi Tanahashi, Toru Yano, Tomohiro Ishii, YOSHI-HASHI, and Taichi. This has been one of the youngest fields of competitors that the G1 Climax has seen, so this year's tournament has been seen as a sort of proving ground for the current New Japan roster, but I do think a lot of them have stepped up. Guys like Yuya Uemura, Yota Tsuji, Shota Umino, Gabe Kidd, and David Finlay have really stepped up their game, and old mainstays like Zack Sabre Jr., Shingo Takagi, and Hirooki Goto showing the younger generation what they still have to overcome.

However, we're not here to talk about match quality. We're here to talk about the playoffs, and who might advance there. We've had 8 nights of action for each block, and it all comes down to this final night. Several eliminations have taken place, but with the larger window of qualification, many men are still in the running in both blocks. How will they make it? Who still has a shot? Who's got a longer shot than most? That's what we'll be going over today.

Before we begin, as usual, I'm gonna plug my G1 Climax results summary Google doc, which you can access here, that I'm manually updating as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a spoiler-free summary of the top 20 best matches of the block phase of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings), as well as the play-offs tree, which will be filled up once the qualified wrestlers are set.

Also, to settle a long running issue that I've had with these breakdowns, one u/EffingKENTA has brought to light a Tokyo Sports article that has enlightened the full procedure of breaking ties. After going through win count and head-to-head results, it seems the official next step in the case of an unbreakable tie is to have a sort of sudden death match. Thus, I will no longer be going any deeper than immediate head-to-head tie breakers when settling point draws. If we get a deadlock, I'll assume a match will be had in order to decide the winner.

A Block

Let's start with a look at the A Block standings …

This past show was quite the culling for A Block. We went from 1 person out of contention to 4 or 5. However, there's still a lot to fight for, and quite a number of ways this thing can go. The only match that won't affect the playoffs will be Newman vs Kidd, but every other match will have an impact. Let's break things down.

1: Zack Sabre Jr. is a lock for the #1 spot

Thanks to his significant point lead and his wins over both Naito and EVIL, ZSJ is guaranteed to take the #1 seed spot in the A Block side of the playoffs. He gets to skip the quarter-final and meet the winner of that match in the semi-final. Congrats to Zack (it's coming home?).

2: EVIL can advance even if he loses.

Depsite his little losing streak, EVIL is still the #2 guy in A Block, thanks to his win over Naito, as such, he's one of the guys in the block with some luxuries. His first one is that he's guaranteed to advance with a win over Shota Umino, and he'll take the #2 spot if he does.

His second luxury is that he's still guaranteed a playoffs spot with a draw. The only thing that changes is his placement, and that depends on the result of Naito vs O-Khan. If Naito wins, then Naito overtakes him, and EVIL is relegated to 3rd place. If Naito loses or draws with O-Khan, then EVIL takes #2 with his win over Naito. Either way, #2 and #3 end up in the same boat, so it makes little difference for EVIL.

His final luxury is that, even if he loses to Umino, EVIL still has a chance to make the playoffs. He would be overtaken by the winner of Naito vs O-Khan (Naito by points, O-Khan by tie-break), so he'd be 3rd at best, but #3 is still good enough in this format. The only way he doesn't advance is if Shingo Takagi beats Jake Lee. With that, Takagi would be on 10 and with his newfound win over EVIL, would push EVIL out of the playoffs. There is a way EVIL does still factor in even if Takagi wins, but I'll touch on that later.

In short, EVIL is out of the playoffs only if he loses and Takagi wins.

3: Naito advances with a win or draw

Naito's on the same score as EVIl, but with the prior loss, he's got some disadvantages. Like EVIL, he advances to the playoffs for sure with a win or a draw. However, his rank is not a lock in either case. He'll be #2 if EVIL performs below Naito (i.e. loses if Naito wins or draws, draws if Naito wins), but EVIL will take #2 if EVIL matches Naito or does better (wins if Naito wins or draws, draws if Naito loses). Again, though, #2 and #3 are pretty much the same, so it doesn't matter either way.

The other way Naito is not like EVIL is that Naito cannot advance on a loss. If he loses to O-Khan, he'll be on 10 points alongside O-Khan and EVIL, both men hewill have lost to, pushing him out of the top 3.

Thus, Naito cannot lose to O-Khan if he wants to make the playoffs.

4: O-Khan can advance with a win, but it's not guaranteed

Next down the line is O-Khan, and we get to the people without guaranteed spots with a simple win. These next two need some help from other result in order to qualify.

For O-Khan, he primarily relies on the results of two other matches: Takagi vs Lee and EVIL vs Umino. ZSJ vs SANADA can also make an impact, but I'll discuss that later. The best case scenario for O-Khan is that Takagi does not beat Lee (keeping Takagi from making 10 points), and Umino beats EVIL (keeping EVIL at 10 points). This would ensure that EVIL, Naito, and O-Khan would all make 10 points, giving O-Khan the tie break boost into 2nd place, while keeping Takagi out of the equation. The only other people who can make 10 would be SANADA and Lee, but the two of them also lost to O-Khan, so it doesn't change his 2nd place finish.

Now, this is the best case scenario, but O-Khan can work with lesser results. If Umino can't manage to keep EVIL from scoring, then O-Khan at least takes 3rd if Takagi doesn't hit 10. Conversely, if Takagi does make 10, then he'll need Umino to keep EVIL at 10 as well in order to support him in ties. Things get a bit messy if SANADA beats ZSJ, but again, I'll talk about that more later.

However, if Takagi makes 10 and EVIL makes 11 or 12, then O-Khan is pretty much out of the running (aside from a fringe case also involving the ZSJ-SANADA match). This would be the worst-case scenario for O-Khan. Therefore, O-Khan will be rooting for Umino and Jake Lee on Monday.

5: Takagi can advance with a win, but it's not guaranteed

Takagi is in a similar boat as O-Khan, but he relies on the results of 3 other matches in order to make the playoffs: ZSJ vs SANADA, EVIL vs Umino, and Naito vs O-Khan (i.e., every other match that involves someone still in contention). In order to secure a playoffs spot, he needs at least 2 of these 3 matches to go the right way. Ideally, e needs O-Khan to beat Naito so that both finish at 10, he needs Umino to beat EVIL so that EVIL also stays at 10, and he needs SANADA to not beat ZSJ so that SANADA stays below 10. With all three of these results, Takagi's wins over Naito, O-Khan, and EVIL would make him the undisputed #2 of B Block.

With just two of the three, though, he would fall behind to #3 with Naito or EVIL overtaking him, and with just one of these, Takagi is in trouble, but the result of the ZSJ-SANADA match complicates things. How? Well, I've been alluding to it a lot, but I thinks it's time we talked about it.

6: A SANADA win … complicates things

Yes, there are a few complicated results that could come about from SANADA beating ZSJ, but these don't come about solely from that win. These complications happen in combination with other results.

Let's start with the big one. If SANADA beats ZSJ, O-Khan beats Naito, Takagi beats Lee, and Umino beats EVIL, then SANADA, O-Khan, Naito, EVIL, and Takagi all finish with 10 points. I'm not quite sure how this resolves exactly, but in this case, O-Khan and Takagi have 3 head-to-head wins each (O-Khan beat EVIL, Naito, and SANADA, and Takagi beat EVIL, Naito, and O-Khan), EVIL has 2 (he beat Naito and SANADA), and Naito & SANADA only have 1 (NAito beat SANADA, and SANADA beat Takagi). With two spots on the line, I woudl think that O-Khan and Takagi would be the ones to qualify.

Things get messier, however, if EVIL breaks past 10. It's the same group in a tie except EVIL, and Takagi and O-Khan still come out on top. However, With EVIL taking #2, that leaves only one spot in the playoffs. Maybe it goes to Takagi since he beat O-Khan? I don't know.

Lastly, the other complexity to happen with a SANADA win is if Takagi beats Lee, Umino beats EVIL, and Naito beats or draws O-Khan. This puts Naito on #2 with 12 points , but #3 is a 3-way deadlock between EVIL, SANADA, and Takagi. This one is much harder to break, and I'm not sure what would happen. This is also the only way SANADA factors into the playoffs decision, so … yeah, I don't know about SANADA.

That should cover every possibility. With that, the results table without draws would be as follows:

There aren't any especially funky results with draws, so for the sake of brevity, I'll leave them out. Just know that ties favor 10-pointers, and not 8-pointers, so you can treat ties for 10-pointers as a win, while ties for 8-pointers is pretty much the same as a loss.

B Block

With A Block done with, let's move on to B Block …

Boy, if you thought A Block was messy, you haven't seen B Block yet. With who's left in contention and the layout of the matches, every block match on the final B Block day will be critical in deciding who makes the playoffs (Oleg vs Uemura would've as well, but with the news of Uemura's injury and dropout from the G1, he's gone from the running. Get well soon, bud). That's a lot of potential outcomes, so let's not waste any time and break things down.

1: The Big Tie

In contrast to how I went through A Block, I'm starting this B Block section with a discussion of a big tie that affects everyone still eligible for the playoffs in B block.

See, because of how close the scores are (everyone eligible is at either 8 or 10 points) and with how the matches are laid out (no one at 10 points is facing someone else at 10 points), there is a very real possibility that B Block ends with 6 people on 10 points: Goto, Tsuji, Cobb, Finlay, Narita, and TAKESHITA. This happens if Goto beats HENARE, Tsuji beats Cobb, TAKESHITA beats Narita, and ELP beats Finlay.

So how does this tie resolve? Well, not very neatly. Among the 6, 4 have 3 head-to-head wins:

• Goto beat Tsuji, Finlay, and TAKESHITA
• Tsuji beat Cobb, Finlay, and Narita
• Finlay beat Cobb, Narita, and TAKESHITA
• TAKESHITA beat Tsuji, Cobb, and Narita

Narita only has 2 (Goto & Cobb), while Cobb only has 1 (Goto). 4 winners for 3 spots is an awkward outcome. I don't know how it resolves, but I guess I'll leave that to New Japan to figure out. Keep this in mind when discussing the other outcomes, as this will be applicable to everyone's section. There are other draws to cover as well, but I'll touch on them when they're relevant.

Anyway, let's get on with the individual wrestlers.

2: Finlay can advance even if he loses

Finlay reclaimed his spot at the top of the block, and with firm head-to-head wins, he is a distinct block leader, even with the point ties. As such, he has the most control in B Block.

First off, if he wins his match against ELP, He's a lock for the #1 seed. Even if he draws ELP, he's a lock for the playoffs, though at what position depends on how many of Cobb and Narita win. He's #1 if they both lose, #2 if only one of them wins, and #3 if they both win.

It's if Finlay loses where things get interesting. Fortunately, losing to ELP doesn't create any new detrimental tie breaks, so he just has to deal with what he already has, and what he has is pretty good. Beating three of the other 5 contenders will help him. As for specific matches, there are two in particular that concern Finlay: Goto vs HENARE and Narita vs TAKESHITA. Goto is one of Finlay's losses, so he's in trouble if Goto makes 10. On the other hand, Finlay's beaten both Narita and TAKESHITA, so he'd benefit greatly from tie breaks if TAKESHITA beat Narita, keeping them both on 10. Both of these things happening would be ideal for Finlay, with his eventual position being determined by the result of Cobb vs Tsuji.

Cobb winning would be the cleanest outcome. In this scenario, Cobb is the only one above 10, so he takes #1, while Finlay takes #2 thanks to his tie-breaks with Narita and TAKESHITA. However, if Tsuji wins, then we end up with something similar to The Big Tie that I discussed earlier, just without Goto. However, removing Goto from the equation makes things easier to work out, as among the 5 wrestlers at 10, 3 come out on top: Tsuji, Finlay, and TAKESHITA (the same guys who come out on top in The Big Tie minus Goto). With 3 spots open, these 3 would be clear to take the spots. The only thing to sort out is who takes the #1 seed.

If only one of the matches resolves ideally, then Finlay still qualifies, but with some caveats. If Goto still loses, but TAKESHITA doesn't beat Narita, then Finlay is left at 10, and Narita overtakes him. The only other match left is Cobb vs Tsuji, but it doesn't change anything for Finlay. If Cobb wins, then he overtakes Finlay as well, and Finlay is left at #3 with no one else at 10. If Tsuji beats Cobb, the both Tsuji and Cobb join Finlay at 10. Finlay lost to Tsuji, but beat Cobb, while Tsuji beat both, so Tsuji takes #2, and Finlay is still at #3.

On the other hand, if Goto beats HENARE, but TAKESHITA still beats Narita, then things get crowded at 10. Tsuji beating Cobb creates The Big Tie, while Cobb wining lets him take #1, leaving a 4-way tie at 10 points. In this case, Goto and Finlay come out on top (Goto beat Finlay and TAKESHITA, while Finlay beat TAKESHITA and Narita), so they take the remaining two spots in a tie.

However, if Goto beats HENARE and Narita beats TAKESHITA, then Finlay is screwed. Cobb beating Tsuji allows both Cobb and Narita to overtake Finlay, and Finlay is left with Goto, who wins the tie break. Tsuji beating Cobb doesn't help things, as in that 4-way tie at 10, Tsuji and Goto come out on top, taking the last two spots.

So those are Finlay's chances. Complicated? Well, the rest aren't much cleaner.

3: Narita can advance with a loss, but only in a tie

Next down is Narita, who finds himself between Finlay and Cobb (he beat Cobb, but lost to Finlay. Similar to Finlay, Narita is guaranteed a playoffs spot if he wins or draws, and like Finlay, his position depends on the performances of the other two 10-pointers. Unlike Finlay, though, he's not guaranteed #1 if he wins, as Finlay will overtake him if he wins as well.

However, if Narita loses, his chances drastic go down. Narita's wishy-washy win record comes back to bite him, and losing adds TAKESHITA to his problems, since they'd be on the same score. Goto beating HENARE would benefit Narita, as Goto is one of his wins. However, with Goto having beaten TAKESHITA, it just creates a 3-way deadlock tie. That leaves two more matches to determine Narita's fate.

Let's start with the Finlay match. Finlay winning would be less than ideal, as it lets Finlay overtake Narita, but Finlay losing to ELP would be much worse for Narita, as it adds Finlay to the tie decision, where Finlay and Goto take the lead among the four. If Cobb then wins, then Goto and Finlay take the other playoffs spots, and if Tsuji beats Cobb, then it creates The Big Tie, where Narita doesn't fare well either.

Thus, the best situation for Narita is for Finlay to win or draw and break 10. This leaves Narita with his 3-way deadlock with Goto and TAKESHITA, so if Cobb wins and also overtakes Narita, then the deadlock takes 3rd place. However, if Tsuji beats Cobb, then it creates a 5-way tie at 10 points, with Cobb taking the lead on 12. However, In this situation, Narita somehow survives. TAKESHITA comes out on top with 3 head-to-head wins (beating Tsuji, Cobb, and Narita), while Narita, Goto, and Tsuji make up the middle with 2 head-to-head wins each. Thus, again, Narita is caught at #3 in a 3-way tie. These 3-way ties are the only way Narita factors into the playoffs if he loses to TAKESHITA.

4: Cobb can advance with a loss, but only in a tie

Cobb's chances are like Narita's, but worse. He still has the benefit of guaranteeing his playoffs spot with a win or draw, but he might end up as low as #3 on a win thanks to his losses to Finlay and Narita. Still, at least it's a guaranteed spot.

Moreover, on a loss, Cobb is in even more trouble than Narita, as he has the worst head-to-head record among those still in contention. The only contender left who he's beaten is Goto, so if he loses to Tsuji, he will need Goto there to give him a chance. However, all this does is create a 3-way deadlock between himself, Tsuji, and Goto. On top of that, his losses mean that he really can't afford Narita, TAKESHITA, or Finlay to stay on 10 points, as they will push him out of position. Thus, it is in Cobb's best interest for Finlay and Narita to just overtake him here, and leave Cobb to a 3-way deadlock for 3rd. It's not an ideal situation, but it's Cobb's only hope if he loses.

5: Tsuji is guaranteed to factor into the playoffs decision on a win

Now we come to the 8-pointers, and with 3 wrestlers on 10 points, the 8-pointers will need to win to have a chance at making the playoffs. In Tsuji's case, though, the chance is 100% on a win, though some of them are in ties.

First off, beating Cobb is an immediate boon, as it gives him some guaranteed tie-breaking power. In addition, Goto (one of Tsuji's prior losses) not making 10 would be very beneficial as well. He can advance with a Goto win, but they're all in ties, so it's less than ideal. His other loss is TAKESHITA, so TAKESHITA beating Narita wouldn't be great either. It doesn't lock him out of the playoffs, but Tsuji fares much better if Narita just beats TAKESHITA and overtakes him. In this case, Tsuji takes either #2 or #3, depending on Finlay's result. If Finlay wins, then Tsuji is left with Cobb and takes #3 via tie-break. However, if Finlay loses, then he joins Tsuji and Cobb at 10. With Tsuji's wins over both of them, Tsuji can take #2.

Now, if TAKESHITA does beat Narita, then we've got a big schmoz with Tsuji, Cobb, Narita, and TAKESHITA. If Finlay wins in this case, then we need to break the 4-way tie. Fortunately for us, this one breaks very easily. TAKESHITA beat the other 3, so he takes the #2 spot, and Tsuji has two head-to-head wins (Cobb & Narita), so he takes #3. Finlay losing, however, adds him to the mix. This helps Tsuji, as he beat Finlay, so it ends up as another 3-way tie for #1 between Tsuji, Finlay, and TAKESHITA.

Now, if Goto wins, things get complicated for Tsuji, as it creates a 3-way deadlock between himself, Goto, and Cobb by default. Finlay losing and tying them in scores helps things a bit, because if Narita wins and breaks away, then Finlay's addition push both Tsuji and Goto up, letting them take the remaining spots. However, if Narita loses to TAKESHITA, it creates The Big Tie, which isn't horrible for Tsuji. However, if Finlay does win, then it leaves the trio alone in their deadlock. This 3-way takes #3 if Narita makes points, but if Narita loses to TAKESHITA, then TAKESHITA comes out on top and takes #2, while the 3-way tie of Tsuji, Goto, and Narita come in at 3rd.

6: TAKESHITA is mostly guaranteed a playoffs spot with a win

Next is KONOSUKE TAKESHITA, who's got a pretty solid chance of making it to the playoffs. In fact, he has more non-tie placements than Tsuji. However, he does have a chance at falling out even if he does win.

Like Tsuji, TAKESHITA gets an automatic tie break support in his win because he'd beat Ren Narita. Moreover, he'd get another significant boost if Tsuji beats Cobb, as he's beaten both of them, putting him on top of the 4-way tie. If Finlay wins, then TAKESHITA takes #2 by tie-breaks. Even if Goto makes 10, TAKESHITA is still the clear winner of the 10-point tie, and still takes #2. If Finlay stays at 10, though, things get messy. Without Goto, The 10-point tie winners are TAKESHITA, Finlay, and Tsuji, which gives another 3-way tie for #1. Goto wining though brings us back to The Big Tie. Either way, TAKESHITA still factors in.

If Cobb beats Tsuji, though, TAKESHITA gets a bit less support, but he's still alright as long as Goto doesn't make 10. If Finlay wins and makes 12, then It'll be Finlay and Cobb at the top, and TAKESHITA takes #3 via tie break. If Finlay stays at 10, then Finlay takes #2 with his wins over both Narita and TAKESHITA, while TAKESHITA stays at #3. However, if Goto does win, then trouble starts brewing for TAKESHITA. The addition of Goto creates a deadlock between Goto, TAKESHITA, and Narita, so if Finlay joins Cobb at 12, then that deadlock takes the #3 spot. However, if Finlay stays at 10, then TAKESHITA gets pushed out of the top 3 by Goto and Finlay. This is the only way TAKESHITA cannot factor into the playoffs on a win.

7: Goto's chances are … messy

Our last contender is Goto, who's in a bit of a sticky situation. Unlike the other 8-pointers, he doesn't get an inherent tie support on a win, as HENARE is already out. Like Finlay, he just has to work with his existing wins, but unlike Finlay, he doesn't have the points to support him.

He's also got problems with the other 3 matches:

• Goto's beaten Tsuji, but lost to Cobb, so Tsuji beating Cobb creates a deadlock, and Cobb beating Tsuji lets Cobb overtake him
• Similarly, Goto's beaten TAKESHITA, but lost to Narita, so TAKESHITA beating Cobb creates another deadlock, while Narita beating TAKESHITA also just lets Narita overtake him
• The Finlay match is the least problematic for Goto, as Finlay staying at 10 gives Goto some tie break help. However, Finlay could just win and overtake Goto.

Because of these factors, Goto is the only 8-pointer who can simply be overtaken by the three 10-pointers, giving him less chances to qualify. In addition, the numerous deadlocks that are likely to occur for Goto means that a lot of the ways Goto can qualify are in ties, which are much harder for Goto to deal with.

Now, that's not to say Goto's out of options. The simplest way for him to qualify is if Cobb and Narita win and make 12, while ELP beats Finlay. This leaves Goto and Finlay alone at 10, allowing Goto to take #3 via tie break. However, every other way for Goto to get into the playoffs involves ties.

Let's start with the easier ties. Again, the Tsuji-Cobb and Narita-TAKESHITA matches could result in a deadlock 3-way for Goto. However, Adding Finlay to the mix helps Goto break these ties. For example, if Tsuji beats Cobb and keeps both at 10, while Narita beats TAKESHITA and makes 12, then if Finlay stays on 10, Goto and Tsuji win the 4-way tie and fill in the remaining spots for the playoffs. The same goes for if Cobb beats Tsuji and TAKESHITA beats Narita, except it'll be Goto and Finlay who take the playoffs spots. However, in both cases, if Finlay does win and makes 12, then the respective deadlocks take #3.

Things get even messier if both 8-pointers beat their respective 10-pointers. Finlay losing would just create The Big Tie, but if Finlay wins, then we have a 5-way tie at 10 points. We've come across this situation already, though. Among these 5, TAKESHITA takes #2, while the trio of Goto, Tsuji, and Narita fill in the #3 spot in their tie.

So yeah, a lot of ties ahead for Goto. It's a tough road for him to the playoffs.

And that should cover everything for B Block. That's a lot to take in, I'm sure, but here's how it looks laid out:

Again, I'll be skipping the summary with ties here. As in A Block, nothing really changes if one of these matches goes to a time-limit or countout draw. Just keep the same thing in mind for A Block (ties benefit 10-pointers and are a detriment to 8-pointers.

And that'll do for this year's G1 Climax. Thank you everyone for reading. I hope you enjoyed my breakdowns. The next tournament we have will be the Super Jr. Tag League on the Road to Power Struggle. I probably won't be making as many posts for that, but I'll be sure to cover it in some shape or form.

Until then, thanks for reading! See you next post.