This month, I bought 5M worth of eMAXIS Slim All Country in my 特定口座 right at its peak of 27,282 yen. This was my first purchase of this fund in my 特定口座. And of course right after that, the price plummeted to 25,109 yen as of today (FML).
Now, I understand that buying index fund is a long game, and time in the market beats timing the market. Because of that, I have no plan to sell the portion of that fund in my NISA account.
However, I wonder if it actually makes sense to sell the shares in my 特定口座. My reasoning is as follow.
- If I sell my shares right now, I will have a lost of ~400,000 yen. This can be used to offset my capital gain when selling my vested RSU earlier this year. At the flat rate of ~20%, I'll save 80,000 yen or so.
- I can then wait for the price to fall further, then right when I see it goes back up, I can start buying back.
- The end result is I can save 80,000 yen of tax, while end up with more shares than I originally had.
- The only way I can see things go wrong is that some how the price shoots up from the current price pass the 27,282 yen peak in a very short time, like in a day, before I have the time to start buying back.
Does my reasoning make sense? Is there anything else I'm missing?
by xevaj