Hello r/njpw

Welcome back to another edition of my G1 Climax block analysis. We're diving back into A Block today, and we're seeing a bit of movement. Nothing too crazy, but the balance of power has shifted slightly. The middle of the pack is as competitive as it's been in the past few days, and it looks to remain as such.

This post marks the start of the final third of the tournament, which is essentially the home stretch. That means tensions are higher, matches are hotter, and that looming wall closing in and removing wrestlers from contention is becoming more and more tangible. Now, as I've mentioned before, the nature of this year's format means that mathematical eliminations are gonna be rarer, but they should eventually start happening. So, how does everyone look as we enter this final phase?

Before we begin, as usual, I'm gonna plug my G1 Climax results summary Google doc, which you can access here, that I'm manually updating as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a spoiler-free summary of the top 20 best matches of the block phase of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings), as well as the play-offs tree, which will be filled up once the qualified wrestlers are set.

With all that being said, let's have a look at the state of A Block.

A Block Standings

There's a bit of a jam in A Block. Since the last show, the top of the block hasn't moved much, but the rear is catching up, narrowing the gap between the players. It was a good show for some of the wrestlers, though, as a couple have leap-frogged up the rankings off of the back of their wins. Who moved up? Who's still stagnant? Let's find out, starting with the man who still reigns at the top of A Block …

1) EVIL

• 10 pts; 5 wins, 1 losses
• 94.1% to go to the playoffs
  • 62.8% as #1
  • 21.8% as #2
  • 9.4% as #3
• Best wins: SANADA [6], Kidd [6], Naito [6]
• Worst losses: O-Khan [4]

Despite losing to Great O-Khan on this past show, Evil still holds on to his #1 spot thanks to his significant point lead. In fact, given the state of A Block, he won't be dropping anytime soon either. In fact, he has a chance to cement his finals spot on this next show. If he beats ZSJ in their next match, Evil's spot in the playoffs will essentially be cemented. He'll have 12 points in a block where the best anyone else can do is 12 points.

On the other hand, if he loses, he still won't be in too bad shape. Yes, ZSJ will match him in points, but he's still guaranteed to be ahead of the rest of the block, with head-to-head victories against many of them. it's gonna take a lot to unseat EVIL.

2) Zack Sabre Jr.

• 8 pts; 4 wins, 2 loss
• 65.8% to go to the playoffs
  • 24.7% as #1
  • 25.7% as #2
  • 15.5% as #3
• Best wins: Naito [6], Newman [4], Lee [4]
• Worst losses: Umino [6], Takagi [6]

Zack stumbled a bit as well, but his point lead also still keeps him ahead of the pack as he holds on to his 2nd place spot. However, he cannot dwell on the loss, because he has to look ahead to a huge opportunity ahead of him. He will face block leader Evil on Tuesday, with the opportunity to match him in points and usurp his leadership spot. That would bring Zack another step closer to that G1 victory he so desperately craves.

3) SANADA

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 3 losses
• 35.5% to go to the playoffs
  • 3.7% as #1
  • 16.6% as #2
  • 15.2% as #3
• Best wins: Kidd [6], Umino [6], Newman [4]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], Naito [6], Lee [4]

Shooting up the ranks in A Block is Sanada.

After collecting another win over Shota Umino, Sanada has managed to jump ahead to #3 in the block. Although his prior loss to Evil dampens his chances of taking #1, a match at the end of the block phase against ZSJ could give him the keys to the playoffs.

Before we get there, however, we have to look at what's coming next, and what's coming next is a match against his former LIJ stablemate Shingo Takagi, who's experiencing his own wave of momentum. With both men at 6, someone will break ahead.

4) Gabe Kidd

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 3 losses
• 31.7% to go to the playoffs
  • 3.8% as #1
  • 13.2% as #2
  • 14.7% as #3
• Best wins: Umino [6], Takagi [6], O-Khan [4]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], SANADA [6], Naito [6]

While his loss to Naito has hurt his chances somewhat, dropping him from his comfy 3rd place spot down to 4th, Gabe Kidd hasn't lost that much ground. Yes, he's now lost to both Evil and Sanada, but a match ahead against ZSJ still gives him hope, and his prior wins over Umino & Takagi continue to stay relevant. As long as he stays near the top of the pack in points, he still has a good shot at making the playoffs.

However, in his immediate future, he has to deal with the Smart Bastard Jake Lee on Tuesday. Lee's in a bit of a desperate spot himself, so Kidd needs to be careful here, even if Jake is a fellow War Dog.

5) Shota Umino

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 3 losses
• 31.5% to go to the playoffs
  • 7.3% as #1
  • 10.3% as #2
  • 13.9% as #3
• Best wins: ZSJ [8], Takagi [6], O-Khan [4]
• Worst losses: SANADA [6], Kidd [6], Newman [4]

Shota Umino just can't seem build any long-lasting momentum in this tournament. Just when he was starting to build a head of steam and put together a short win streak, he's cut off once again, losing to Sanada. Now he's got to put himself together once again, because he's got a tough match coming up next against the IWGP champion himself, Tetsuya Naito. Can Umino recover in time to get a win over the champion?

6) Shingo Takagi

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 3 losses
• 31.1% to go to the playoffs
  • 6.5% as #1
  • 11.5% as #2
  • 13.0% as #3
• Best wins: ZSJ [8], Naito [6], O-Khan [4]
• Worst losses: Kidd [6], Umino [6], Newman [4]

Takagi's managed to jump up a bit himself. While prior losses to Umino & Kidd keep him from rising up too high, the win over Zack Sabre Jr. has given him the exact kind of high-quality win he's been needing. He needs to keep up that momentum if he wants to get into the playoffs.

So what's next for the Rampage Dragon? Well, I've talked about it already, but the next match for Shingo will be against ex-LIJ member Sanada. They're both former IWGP World Champions, and they're both coming off of big wins in this year's G1 Climax. We'll see who's wave of momentum is stronger.

7) Tetsuya Naito

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 3 losses
• 29.9% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.5% as #1
  • 10.7% as #2
  • 18.7% as #3
• Best wins: SANADA [6], Kidd [6], Lee [4]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], ZSJ [8], Takagi [6]

Despite getting himself a good win over Gabe Kidd, Naito hasn't really moved too far ahead. Takagi's success and the prior losses to Evil & ZSJ keep our IWGP champion from ranking too highly in A Block. Naito's gonna need a bit more help if he wants to climb the ranks.

Naito has one last chance for a major victory to help augment his chances, as he'll take on A Block's Reiwa Musketeer representative, Shota Umino. It's a match that Naito has won before, and with Umino suffering from a bad back, it feels like a fairly winnable match for him, but Naito can't rest on his laurels.

8) Callum Newman

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 4 losses
• 7.6% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.02% as #1
  • 1.9% as #2
  • 5.7% as #3
• Best wins: Umino [6], Takagi [6]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], ZSJ [8], SANADA [6]

Things are starting to take a turn for the worse for young Callum Newman. While he wasn't in the strongest position previously, he was at least able to keep pace with some of the bigger names in the block. However, losing to Jake Lee has caused him to fall behind, and being on 4 points at this stage of the tournament is dangerous. He and the rest of the 4-pointers are pretty much one loss away from mathematical elimination.

On top of that, Callum Newman's next match will be against Great-O-Khan, almost guaranteeing that at least one of them will fall out of the competition on this coming show. We'll see if the Prince of Pace can manage to keep himself relevant in this race.

9) Jake Lee

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 4 losses
• 7.9% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.1% as #1
  • 2.7% as #2
  • 5.1% as #3
• Best wins: SANADA [6], Newman [4]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], ZSJ [8], Naito [6]

Jake Lee managed to stave off elimination by beating Callum Newman, but he's still on delicate ground. He'll need to continue winning if he wants to stay in this.

Next up for Jake Lee is Gabe Kidd. Lee cannot afford to take it easy on his fellow War Dog, so I wonder what the Smart Bastard has in store for him.

10) Great-O-Khan

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 4 losses
• 4.0% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.04% as #1
  • 1.1% as #2
  • 2.9% as #3
• Best wins: EVIL [10], Lee [4]
• Worst losses: ZSJ [8], Kidd [6], Umino [6]

Still holding the bottom of the block is Great-O-Khan. He got a massive win over block leader Evil, but it might be too little too late. He'd need to win every match from here on out, and he'd need Evil to lose every match from here on out in order to have a chance at leveraging that win, and that's a tall order to ask for. Alas, all it has really done is stave off elimination for another day.

As I mentioned earlier, the next match for O-Khan is against Callum Newman, and whoever loses that match would be all but eliminated. It'll be a fight for survival, and a fight to live another day in A Block.

What's Next?

This next show is gonna be a pivotal one for A Block. A lot of these matches will shift the balance of the block considerably in several ways. One of the biggest matches on the show will be the clash between the two leaders of A Block: EVIL and Zack Sabre Jr. Will Evil finally stamp his ticket into the playoffs, or will Zack start this final third of the block phase overtaking EVIL and claiming leadership for himself?

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have the two of the lowest ranking wrestlers in the block going head-to-head in Callum Newman vs Great-O-Khan. Once again, anyone caught at 4 points at the end of this show is almost certainly going to be mathematically eliminated from contention, and so Newman and O-Khan will have that weighing on their shoulders in this match. Also, Jake Lee will be taking on fellow War Dog Gabe Kidd. While Lee is on death's door, Kidd doesn't want to lose this next match either. Anyone with 4 points by the end of this show is bound to be eliminated, but anyone with 6 points will not be in a great position either. He's gonna want to move up to 8 points with several people in this block if he wants to keep a realistic chance of going to the playoffs.

Lastly, our top two matches will break the delicate balance in the middle part of A Block, as both matches will feature 6-pointers taking on other 6-pointers. The semi-main event will see Shota Umino vs Tetsuya Naito, while the main event has SANADA vs Shingo Takagi. With only 3 shows left, and the prospect of either having two men at 10 points, or the ceiling of the block raised to 12 as a result of the EVIL vs ZSJ match, it's important to keep up with the pack, lest they get left behind and crushed by the now advancing wall of elimination. Every victory will be significant, and every loss will be devastating for those caught in the middle. Who going up, and who'll be left behind? That's what's at stake on Tuesday.

That'll do for this post. Next up for me will be discussing B Block after Sunday's show, and man, has the landscape shifted significantly there, and at the same time, the log jam continues to be a problem. The mess of B Block persists, and I'm going to have to sift through the rubble and find some meaning.

Until next time, thanks for reading! See you next post.