Hello r/njpw

It's that time of the year again, everyone. It's G1 season, and what a season it's been. A lot of people seem to have been enjoying this year's edition, for a few reasons.

Much to the delight of many, we're back to 10-man blocks this year, but with a twist! Unlike past 10-man block formats, we'll see 3 wrestlers from each block advance to the playoffs. The #2 and #3 of each block will have a quarter-final match, the winners of which will face off against their respective #1s in a semi-final. Then, the ultimate winner of each block will face off in the climax of the G1 Climax: a finals match to determine the ultimate winner of this years tournament.

This change in format has one big implication, and that's that there are three spots up for grabs to make it past the block phase. In all the tournaments I've done summaries for, only one or two spots were available. In fact, this'll be the first G1 since 2004 where we'll be taking more than two wrestlers per block to the final playoff round.

In addition to this being new territory for me, the biggest thing that this'll mean is that the floor for qualification is lower than ever. With this format, it's possible to have a losing record (8pts, or a 4-5 record) and still be eligible for the playoffs, given the right circumstances. This means that people will be in the running for much longer than usual, and the fields are gonna be bigger than ever heading into the home stretch, so expect a lot of people to still be fighting for spots even in the last few days of each block. Don't worry, though, as I'll be here to help you guys navigate the many possibilities that can come up.

For those of you who are new to these, I make posts rounding up the possible outcomes for these round-robin tournaments. I look at the % odds of each team of making it out of the block phase (taking all results as equal), sometimes even taking draws into account (for this particular post, I won't be doing that just yet).

Now, for those of you who are not new to these, you may notice that I'm doing this a bit earlier than usual. I've learned how to squeeze in more calculation, so I can get odds with four shows remaining. Still, there's literally a million ways this can go (and that's without taking time-limit or countout draws into account), so I won't be diving to deep into the details. Just a more surface-level look at different wrestlers chances and outlooks as we enter the back half of the block phase.

In addition, I also have a G1 Climax results summary Google doc available here that I'm manually updating as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a spoiler-free summary of the top 20 best matches of the block phase of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings), as well as the play-offs tree, which will be filled up once the qualified wrestlers are set.

With all that being said, let's have a look at the state of B Block.

B Block Standings

Hoo boy, look at that. B Block is definitely very different from A Block. I'll tell you this right off the bat, no one in B Block has a better-than-50% chance of making it to the playoffs at the moment. That's how close everyone is. At this point, it's all up in the air, and everything can change in the next few days. For now, though, let's just see where everyone stands, starting with …

1) David Finlay

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 2 losses
• 50.0% to go to the playoffs
  • 20.0% as #1
  • 15.5% as #2
  • 14.5% as #3
• Best wins: TAKESHITA [6], Narita [6], HENARE [6]
• Worst losses: Uemura [6], Tsuji [4]

Taking the head of B Block by a slim margin is the leader of the War Dogs, David Finlay.

I'll start this section off by noting that David Finlay has a 50% chance to make the playoffs, with a 20% chance to take #1. The fact that these are the highest rates in B Block shows how close B Block. On top of that, looking at the rates for everyone here at 6 points shows how tight this race is. Yes, Finlay is at the top, but that can change very easily and very quickly.

Now, among this tight race among the 6-pointers, why does Finlay stand at the top, even if by a bit? A lot of it has to do with his wins. He's the only one among the 6-pointers to have beaten 3 fellow 6-pointers. That means that his quality of tiebreakers is quite high. That'll help him if things stay tight, and especially if any of his wins stay relevant. Of course, he has to worry about his prior losses, especially Uemura who's matching him in points and is hot on his trail, but also Tsuji, who, despite having had a rough start to this tournament, could rise up at a moment's notice.

At this point, it's too early to give a specific road to the playoffs for Finlay. We'll see how things fall when or if people start to break ahead.

2) Yuya Uemura

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 2 losses
• 48.2% to go to the playoffs
  • 17.8% as #1
  • 15.4% as #2
  • 15.0% as #3
• Best wins: Finlay [6], TAKESHITA [6], Goto [4]
• Worst losses: HENARE [6], Cobb [6]

Next up is Heat Storm Yuya Uemura.

Living up to his name, Uemura started this tournament on fire, getting 3 wins in a row to start things off and take the top of the block. However, he's since dropped two to the UE members of B Block, and while he's still i a strong position, he's fallen to #2.

Despite having beaten David Finlay, Uemura still finds himself behind him in the standings. That's probably because of the slightly lower quality of his wins, with one of his coming from current 4-pointer Hirooki Goto. He also has harsher losses, with both of them being current 6-pointers. That means that he has a slightly lower chance of faring favorably in the event of ties.

Still, 6 points is 6 points, and a win over David Finlay might do Uemura favors down the line, but that remains to be seen.

3) KONOSUKE TAKESHITA

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 2 losses
• 47.6% to go to the playoffs
  • 17.3% as #1
  • 15.3% as #2
  • 15.1% as #3
• Best wins: HENARE [6], Cobb [6], Tsuji [4]
• Worst losses: Finlay [6], Uemura [6]

Next up is B Block's guest and the owner of the best average CageMatch match rating in this tournament, Konosuke Takeshita.

Takeshita has been putting on a clinic in this tournament, going toe-to-toe with the heaviest hitters in the game and beating some of the toughest men in New Japan. Unfortunately, his losses have done him no favors, as he's lost to both Uemura and Finlay, who both now stand ahead of him. Those are results he cannot take away, and while two losses alone wouldn't be enough to push him out of the playoffs, it does put some pressure on him to not get another significant loss.

4) Ren Narita

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 2 losses
• 47.3% to go to the playoffs
  • 17.2% as #1
  • 15.4% as #2
  • 14.7% as #3
• Best wins: Cobb [6], Goto [4]
• Worst losses: Finlay [6], Oleg [4]

Souled Out Ren Narita is doing well for himself this year, matching his score from last year, but with a better record (3 wins vs 2 wins and 2 draws). The quality of wins isn't quite there for him, though, as a lot of his results come from the bottom of the block, including one of his losses: Boltin Oleg. Still, he has ample opportunity to make up ground, as he has yet to face neither Uemura nor Takeshita, so that may be the way he climbs up the ranks.

5) HENARE

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 2 losses
• 45.5% to go to the playoffs
  • 16.0% as #1
  • 14.6% as #2
  • 14.9% as #3
• Best wins: Uemura [6], Oleg [4]
• Worst losses: Finlay [6], TAKESHITA [6]

The NEVER Openweight Champion Henare is still in the running here in B Block, though he's a bit behind his 6-point peers. Apart from the win over Uemura, he doesn't quite have the quality there, while his losses are pretty damaging. Henare's gonna have to continue to be diligent and continue his winning ways, hoping that his wins will pay off if worse comes to worst.

6) Jeff Cobb

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 2 losses
• 45.3% to go to the playoffs
  • 15.3% as #1
  • 15.3% as #2
  • 14.8% as #3
• Best wins: Uemura [6], Goto [4]
• Worst losses: TAKESHITA [6], Narita [6]

Last for the 6-pointers is Jeff Cobb, who's got a similar record and chance to advance as his UE brother Henare. Everything I said about Henare more or less applies to Cobb. The main difference with Cobb is that he still has an open match with David Finlay, so that result could potentially give Cobb a big boost.

7) Yota Tsuji

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 3 losses
• 22.7% to go to the playoffs
  • 5.5% as #1
  • 7.9% as #2
  • 9.4% as #3
• Best wins: Finlay [6], Oleg [4]
• Worst losses: TAKESHITA [6], Goto [4]

We now move down to the 4-pointers, beginning with Yota Tsuji.

I think a lot of people are surprised with Tsuji's placement in the early part of this tournament. He certainly has lost a couple of big matches: first to the outsider Konosuke Takeshita, then to the the local sad boy ELP, and most recently losing his NJC Finals rematch with Hirooki Goto. However, he has gotten one significant win in his pocket over David Finlay, so that might help him out down the line. He just has to put together the wins and the points in order for that to have a chance of mattering. We are still fairly early in the tournament, and there's still a lot of time left to make up ground, so Tsuji does still have a chance to climb the ranks.

8) Boltin Oleg

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 3 losses
• 20.4% to go to the playoffs
  • 4.6% as #1
  • 6.7% as #2
  • 9.1% as #3
• Best wins: Narita [6]
• Worst losses: HENARE [6], Tsuji [4], Goto [4]

Next down is Boltin Oleg.

The Kazakh snow leopard is struggling in his first G1 Climax, accumulating a losing record thus far. He does own a win over Ren Narita, so things aren't too bad. However, he's lost to both of his 4-pointer peers, as well as the NEVER champion Henare, so that's going against him. Fortunately, Oleg does still have a lot of open matches against the high-ranking players in B Block, so he'll have ample opportunity to improve his standing.

9) Hirooki Goto

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 3 losses
• 17.5% to go to the playoffs
  • 3.2% as #1
  • 5.7% as #2
  • 8.5% as #3
• Best wins: Tsuji [4], Oleg [4]
• Worst losses: Uemura [6], Narita [6], Cobb [6]

The last wrestler among the 4-pointers is the resident veteran Hirooki Goto.

Goto's problems are very clear, because it's all about quality. He doesn't have a good win rate, the wins he does have are all over current 4-pointers, and all his losses come from current 6-pointers. He needs to either build up some quality wins, or hope that some of his current wins improve in quality. For example, if Tsuji starts climbing the ranks and becomes a contender down the line, then Goto's win over Tsuji suddenly becomes quite valuable. That's what it's gonna take for Goto.

10) El Phantasmo

• 2 pts; 1 win, 4 losses
• 3.6% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.3% as #1
  • 1.4% as #2
  • 2.0% as #3
• Best wins: Tsuji [4]
• Worst losses: Narita [6], HENARE [6], Cobb [6], Oleg [4]

Finally, we have local sad boy ELP. Man has not been taking things well, and it's affected his G1 performance. He's dead last in B Block with a severely low chance of qualifying. That being said, he still has a lot of big matches left, including against the current top 3 wrestlers of B Block, so maybe things will pick up for him in the future. He's just got to put himslef together and put together some wins.

What's Next?

This next B Block show will feature a match between 6-pointers, that being the United Empire clash between HENARE and Jeff Cobb. This match means that we are guaranteed to raise the ceiling in B Block, so anyone who stays at 6 or below will fall behind. That puts some pressure on these wrestlers, because every other match will feature a 6-pointer taking on someone with a lower score.

First up will be Boltin Oleg vs David Finlay, followed by El Phantasmo vs Yuya Uemura. The semi-main will see a battle of big boys, with Hirooki Goto vs Konosuke Takeshita, and our main event will be the Reiwa Musketeer clash between Yota Tsuji & Ren Narita. The latter match went to a draw last year, but that was with a 20-min time limit, and a very different Narita. We'll see how that goes now under different contexts.

At the very least, we'll see the power dynamics shift in B Block in this next show. Who will stay in the lead? Who will fall behind? Tune in to find out.

That'll do for this post. We're going back to A Block, where things are starting to converge again. The crowd is closing in on the block leaders, but leaders they remain. What do people have to do? has anyone climbed up the ranks? Has EVIL really lost any ground? Answers to these questions and more in my next post.

Until next time, thanks for reading! See you next post.