Kyoto for the New Year holiday or skip it?

So I am currently living in Japan on the Jet Program and my family is coming to visit around the New Year's holiday and into the new year. I know that is a busy time to travel for both domestic and international tourists, but it was the time that worked out the best for all of our schedules.

I'm doing most of the planning, and am deciding between 2 options of where to spend the actual New Year's holiday. See below the original itinerary, where we would spend the holiday in the Matsumoto area:

December 25-30

  • Tokyo (not relevant for question)

December 30th (Mon) Nikko

  • Pick up rental car
  • Drive to Nikko, Tochigi

December 31st (Tues) Nikko/Matsumoto

  • Explore Nikko
  • Drive to Matsumoto, Nagano
  • New Year’s Celebration!

January 1st (Wed) Matsumoto

  • Explore Kiso Valley
    • Narai-juku
    • Magome-juku

January 2nd (Thurs) Matsumoto

  • Ski at Hakuba (only if we don't need the extra day somewhere else)

January 3rd (Fri) Hakone

  • Drive to Hakone
  • Explore
  • Drive to Tokyo, return rental car
  • Take Shinkansen to Kyoto

January 4th (Sat) Kyoto

  • Arashiyama Bamboo Forest
  • Tenryu-ji
  • Saga Toriimoto Preserved street
  • Adashino Nenbutsuji Temple

January 5th (Sun) Kyoto

  • Kinkakuji Temple
  • Nijo Castle
  • Nishiki Market
  • Ninenzaka, Kiyomizu

January 6th (Mon) Kyoto

  • Sento Imperial Palace
  • Fushimi Inari Shrine
  • Head to Nara/Osaka

January 7-8

  • Nara/Osaka (not relevant for question)

But this is what I am considering switching, just an even swap of Nikko/Matsumoto/Hakone for Kyoto:

December 25-30

  • Tokyo (not relevant for question)

December 30th (Mon) Kyoto

  • Shinkansen to Kyoto
  • Sento Imperial Palace (closed during new years)
  • Fushimi Inari Shrine
  • Toji Temple

December 31st (Tues) Kyoto

  • Arashiyama Bamboo Forest
  • Tenryu-ji
  • Saga Toriimoto Preserved street (shops will close early?)
  • Adashino Nenbutsuji Temple

January 1st (Wed) Kyoto

  • Kinkakuji Temple
  • Nijo Castle (closed during new years)
  • Nishiki Market (closed during new years)
  • Pontocho Alley
  • Ninenzaka, Kiyomizu

January 2nd (Thurs) Nara

  • Day Trip to Nara
    • Kofukuji Temple
    • Nandaimon Gate/Todaiji Temple
    • Nara deer park
    • Higashimuki Shopping street (shops might be closed)

January 3rd (Fri) Osaka

  • Minami/Namba (Downtown)
  • Shinsekai street
  • Osaka Castle
  • Sumiyoshi Taisha Shrine

January 4th (Sat) Osaka/Nikko

  • Other Osaka stuff
  • Shinkansen back to Tokyo
  • Pick up rental car
  • Drive to Nikko, Tochigi

January 5th (Sun) Nikko/Matsumoto

  • Explore Nikko
  • Drive to Matsumoto, Nagano

January 6th (Mon) Matsumoto

  • Explore Kiso Valley
    • Narai-juku
    • Magome-juku

January 7th (Tues) Matsumoto

  • Ski at Hakuba (only if we don't need the day somewhere else)

January 8th (Wed) Hakone

  • Drive to Hakone
  • Explore
  • Go back to Tokyo

So mainly, my question surrounds whether Kyoto will be less busy at the tourist sites over the New Years holiday or the following weekend- I realize it will be busy regardless but will either way make a difference? Likewise, as noted in the alternate itinerary, some things in Kyoto will be closed over the holiday, such as the Nijo Castle and Imperial Palace. Will shops such as along the Saga Toriimoto preserved street be closed too? Will not seeing these things outweigh being in such a culturally important city for the New Year?

I am wondering if the New Years holiday will make it less busy as domestic tourists will be spending time with family, whereas the following weekend the festivities have ended and now everyone is out and about. Is this true at all? Or will it really not matter either way?

I am just trying to decide which option is more worth it in terms of being able to experience Kyoto to its fullest while also being engaged in the culture and the holiday. Any thoughts? Grateful for anything!

by elbick54321

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