I had a question regarding the predicted earthquake. According to various experts, this earthquake occurs every 90-200 years and the next one could hit within our lifetime.
However, looking at the last few times it’s happened and the death tolls and the projected death toll of this one, I’m a bit baffled.
For example, the last time it happened was in 1944 (8.1) and 1946 (8.1). The combined death toll was approximately 2500. The ones before were in 1854 (8.4) and the combined totals were just in the (thousands).
Why is it that the projected death toll is 230000-350000 for the next one? The number is so much bigger than the ones before. I can’t seem to understand the reasoning behind this.
https://www.reddit.com/r/japan/comments/16a112v/why_is_the_nankai_earthquake_death_toll_so/
2 comments
The great Kanto earthquake had a death toll of over 100k and the population was about a quarter of what it is now.
First it’s probably a worst-case figure, but secondly, a sizable tsunami will probably wipe out central Osaka and Kobe and all the bits in between. There was about 20,000 deaths in the recent Tohoku quake, so you can easily imagine a 10x population density in the Hanshin area.
Don’t know why previous quakes had few deaths, but perhaps there were smaller tsunami?