Karuizawa day trip from Tokyo

Hi all, need some advice if this one-day itinerary for Karuizawa is doable for me and the missus.

– Leave Tokyo station on 6.52am on Hokuriku Shinkansen (Asama line). Arrive at Karuizawa station at 8am. Grab a bite.
– Shiraito waterfall. Depart Karuizawa station at 8:50am, arrive at 9:03am. Leave Shiraito at 9:56am, arrive at Karuizawa station at 10:20am.
– Kumoba Pond. Slow walk to Kumoba Pond and plan to spend 30 mins here.
– Lunch at Kyu-Karuizawa Ginza at 12pm plus some shopping.
– Hoshino Onsen. Depart Karuizawa station at 3:50pm on Seibu Kano bus, arrive at onsen at 4:10pm. Plan to spend 1-2 hours.
– Dinner around the onsen, either Sonmin-Shokudo or head towards Harunire Terrace. Finish up by 8pm.
– Depart Karuizawa at 9pm on Hokuriku Shinkansen (Hakutaka line). Arrive in Tokyo at 10 pm.

Some questions:
– Can’t decide if we should we rent bikes for Kumoba Pond + Kyu-Karuizawa instead of walking.
– Do we need to reserve ahead at Hoshino Onsen?
– We talked about going to Prince Shopping Plaza, but I don’t think we have the time.
– How hard would it be to get a taxi at 8pm in the Hoshino Onsen/ Harunire Terrace area? Given that the last Seibu Kano bus terminates at about 7pm, my option is to take a taxi or walk to Naka Karuizawa station + short train ride to Karuizawa station. Tempted to take the taxi since we will be pretty tired at this stage.

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