Should I get a 一戸建 in the next 2-3 years?

So I recently moved back to Yokohama with my wife who is a native Japanese. we previously lived in Canada (GTA area) and we want to move back to Asia and stay closer to our home countries. (I’m from Shanghai originally).
As you probably have noticed the living costs in North America have been increasing significantly, so my wife and I were thinking of maybe splitting our current home in Canada into 2 parts, sort of diversifying our portfolio a bit. One part is we still keep a place to live in Canada in case we change our minds and want to move back in the future, and the other part is to get a place here in either Tokyo or Kanagawa.

We currently live with my in-laws, and we don’t own our own place in Japan yet, I saw Tokyo real estate been on the rise in the past few years and I am not sure if it is a good decision to be purchasing a home here due to the fact that Japan’s real estate crashed before and also there may or may not be a huge earthquake in the near future. I could rent but I still prefer to dwell in my own place, I most likely won’t consider a Tower mansion or any highrise buildings, since my wife had experienced 311, and she says she will never live in high apartments again, so 一戸建 will be my only consideration.

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11 comments
  1. Yes.

    Stop thinking of it as purely ROI. Houses aren’t investments, they are “durable goods.” Live in your own house, get it insulated, heated floors, can’t hear your neighbors gargling in the morning. Land prices in Tokyo/Yokohama are likely to increase going forward if conveniently located, but as with any market projection, nothing is guaranteed. Don’t buy a mansion unless your a sucker for timeshare style pyramid schemes, or just have enough money that you don’t care about paying to own a share of a property.

  2. Purely personal opinion, but if you have the 余裕 to afford it, I’d do it. There’s chances on anything happening, and worrying about what ifs can be detrimental.

    It’s more important what makes you and your wife happy. If the real estate market does crash, who’s to say when it happens? Is the difference worth the amount of time that you likely have had a peace of mind and everything?

    The potential earthquake is the same kind of worry. Whether you’re just renting or if it’s your own house, if you do suffer from it, it’s gonna suck a lot. It’s up to you two to decide what you find more important and/or what’s a good compromise though.

  3. Fellow refugee from Ontario here. True that prices are insane- my sister just paid close to a million bucks for a townhouse in Hamilton!

    Given the prices in Canada, plus the strength of the Canadian ruble vs. the yen, maybe just selling your place would be a good idea. OR renting it out and using the rental income to finance a mortgage here in Japan. That way you keep your property back home and can always use it again if need be.

    Any particular reason to live in greater Tokyo? You can get good value outside the capital, unless you are tied there by work. Eg. I pay 85,000 yen rent for a 4 bedroom house about 40 minutes outside of Nagoya. Close to the mountains, close to the sea, close to Costco…

  4. The housing market in Japan does not follow the traditional convention of properties will always grow in value because of Earthquake. All houses lose their value in 40 years supposedly because of new Earthquake regulation.

    Get whatever you all feel happy about and that is the most important

  5. I don’t think we have been given enough context here to help you out. For instance, we need to know your budget, cash on hand, cash flow, and whether you’re planning to take out a mortgage.

    Also, keep in mind that Japan hasn’t experienced significant inflation in the past 20-30 years. It’s unclear whether this trend will continue in the future, and the population is declining. Unless there’s a major policy change, this trend is likely to persist. Unlike in the West, where things, including real estate, tend to get more expensive, Japan is different. We’re not even talking about a crash; we’re experiencing decades of price stagnation. This is something you need to pay attention to.

  6. I definitely like having my own house. I just brought 2 dump trucks full of logs and dumped them into my yard and I’m chopping it up for firewood.

    I gutted one room to the dirt, poured concrete, cut a new hole in the wall and made a motorcycle garage.

    I removed the whole second floor

    I combined a bunch of rooms into a huge living room.

    When you own your own house you can do whatever the hell you want. Don’t think about only money. It’s an investment in happiness as well.

  7. If you buy in a more central, convenient area and make sure the actual price of the building/house is considerably less than the land, it should hold its value.

    We just bought a house west of Meguro station, a few stations out and the house itself is less than 20% of the total purchase price. Stay away from areas that are outside the central ku’s with the exception of maybe Setagaya.

    Also, you’re better off with a mortgage then paying too much cash upfront. Interest rates are so low your better off parking your cash somewhere where you can earn a small return.

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