:((((( I will be there around the 8th of March so will probably miss out
Weird it doesn’t include Okinawa (where I currently am). I asked in the tourist information centre and they said next weekend it will start but then explained they have varieties of blossom not in mainland Japan and that some people don’t consider it ‘real’ cherry blossom (although I could be missunderstanding slightly)
Arrive in Tokyo on the 24th March at night… will be quite a site when I wake up the next day and go for a walk
Does anyone know how close this forecast is to the February one usually?
How long do the Cherry Blossoms last? If I am in Tokyo on April 11th will they still be around?
Having lived in Japan for years, I want to caution (and comfort) everyone by saying these forecasts 10 weeks out aren’t always correct. Unexpected heat waves can cause early blooming and unexpected storms can cause them to fall off the trees earlier. Likewise a cold front could delay blooming.
The predictions will be more accurate at the end of Feb/beginning of March.
I will be there from 14th to 30th March. Fingers crossed.
Will be in Osaka on Mar 8-13. Hoping that we can see some early bloomers.
Nice should be able to capture it again, this trip is 15th to 29th
We saw early blooms in late February 2019. Going in early to mid March this year. It’s hard to time it just right but you won’t be disappointed with the weather!
Will be in Japan from 4/2-4/16! Visiting Tokyo, Kyoto, Nara and Osaka and hoping we’ll be able to catch some blooms 🥰
Seems like my trip, 3/21 – 4/2 will be perfect timing!
I have an option to go on March 24th or April 10th to Tokyo/Kyoto/Osaka.. So you guys recommend late March over the second week of April?
I’ll be in Tokyo in mid-March, so hopefully there will be some early bloomers!
Post “here is an early prediction”
Ample comments: “THE EDICT IS DECLARED!”
I will be there too
I hope that’s close…..get there on the 12 March leaving on the 28 march
Sweet…I’ll be in Japan 3/25-4/13 so these dates look pretty good so far. Hopefully they hold up. Doing Tokyo > Hiroshima > Kyoto > Kanazawa > Tokyo.
Another resident chiming in. Admittedly, last year’s cherry blossoms season was the first since the borders properly reopened to tourists – so the excitement and build up was real – but I remember seeing influencers and other outlets crying out “Here it is! Book your tickets now!”. I remember thinking… well this isn’t going to end well, and sure enough the original January forecasts were 9 days off. I’m sure that left some people quite disappointed. This is to say, it’s okay to take these forecasts into consideration, but since predicting things this far out is very difficult, there is always going to be chance involved.
In any case, along the first forecast, there is the not-nearly as focused on 2023 recap which is published alongside the forecast, only in Japanese though: https://n-kishou.com/corp/pdf/tec240110.pdf
I figured I’d share some highlights for anyone wondering. About last year, specifically:
> The JMA sample tree bloom forecast error was 9.1 days in the first forecast (1/11), 8.1 days in the second (1/26), and 8.0 days in the third (2/9), with an error of more than one week in the early stages of the forecast, but 6.4 days in the fourth (2/16), and thereafter the accuracy improved as blooming approached, reaching 2.1 days in the eighth, just before the bloom rush. The error in forecasting the full bloom of JMA sample trees was 2.3 days in the 8th survey (3/16), just before the first bloom.
A summary of the past couple of years:
> The 2023 season, with an error of 9.1 in the first forecast, was less accurate than the 2020 season, which had an error of 3.7 days, and the 2022 season, which had an error of 2.2 days. The 2023 season was the earliest on record nationwide due to much warmer-than-normal March temperatures, and the difficulty in predicting this extreme high temperature trend in January and early February contributed to the large errors in the early part of the forecast.
Just something to keep in mind!
Im going in april 4/12-4/25 what does that mean for me?
20 comments
:((((( I will be there around the 8th of March so will probably miss out
Weird it doesn’t include Okinawa (where I currently am). I asked in the tourist information centre and they said next weekend it will start but then explained they have varieties of blossom not in mainland Japan and that some people don’t consider it ‘real’ cherry blossom (although I could be missunderstanding slightly)
Arrive in Tokyo on the 24th March at night… will be quite a site when I wake up the next day and go for a walk
Does anyone know how close this forecast is to the February one usually?
How long do the Cherry Blossoms last? If I am in Tokyo on April 11th will they still be around?
Having lived in Japan for years, I want to caution (and comfort) everyone by saying these forecasts 10 weeks out aren’t always correct. Unexpected heat waves can cause early blooming and unexpected storms can cause them to fall off the trees earlier. Likewise a cold front could delay blooming.
The predictions will be more accurate at the end of Feb/beginning of March.
I will be there from 14th to 30th March. Fingers crossed.
Will be in Osaka on Mar 8-13. Hoping that we can see some early bloomers.
Nice should be able to capture it again, this trip is 15th to 29th
We saw early blooms in late February 2019. Going in early to mid March this year. It’s hard to time it just right but you won’t be disappointed with the weather!
Will be in Japan from 4/2-4/16! Visiting Tokyo, Kyoto, Nara and Osaka and hoping we’ll be able to catch some blooms 🥰
Seems like my trip, 3/21 – 4/2 will be perfect timing!
I have an option to go on March 24th or April 10th to Tokyo/Kyoto/Osaka.. So you guys recommend late March over the second week of April?
I’ll be in Tokyo in mid-March, so hopefully there will be some early bloomers!
Post “here is an early prediction”
Ample comments: “THE EDICT IS DECLARED!”
I will be there too
I hope that’s close…..get there on the 12 March leaving on the 28 march
Sweet…I’ll be in Japan 3/25-4/13 so these dates look pretty good so far. Hopefully they hold up. Doing Tokyo > Hiroshima > Kyoto > Kanazawa > Tokyo.
Another resident chiming in. Admittedly, last year’s cherry blossoms season was the first since the borders properly reopened to tourists – so the excitement and build up was real – but I remember seeing influencers and other outlets crying out “Here it is! Book your tickets now!”. I remember thinking… well this isn’t going to end well, and sure enough the original January forecasts were 9 days off. I’m sure that left some people quite disappointed. This is to say, it’s okay to take these forecasts into consideration, but since predicting things this far out is very difficult, there is always going to be chance involved.
In any case, along the first forecast, there is the not-nearly as focused on 2023 recap which is published alongside the forecast, only in Japanese though: https://n-kishou.com/corp/pdf/tec240110.pdf
I figured I’d share some highlights for anyone wondering. About last year, specifically:
> The JMA sample tree bloom forecast error was 9.1 days in the first forecast (1/11), 8.1 days in the second (1/26), and 8.0 days in the third (2/9), with an error of more than one week in the early stages of the forecast, but 6.4 days in the fourth (2/16), and thereafter the accuracy improved as blooming approached, reaching 2.1 days in the eighth, just before the bloom rush. The error in forecasting the full bloom of JMA sample trees was 2.3 days in the 8th survey (3/16), just before the first bloom.
A summary of the past couple of years:
> The 2023 season, with an error of 9.1 in the first forecast, was less accurate than the 2020 season, which had an error of 3.7 days, and the 2022 season, which had an error of 2.2 days. The 2023 season was the earliest on record nationwide due to much warmer-than-normal March temperatures, and the difficulty in predicting this extreme high temperature trend in January and early February contributed to the large errors in the early part of the forecast.
Just something to keep in mind!
Im going in april 4/12-4/25 what does that mean for me?