How damning is backing out of a COE/Visa?

Title says it all

COEs for October start date are coming soon, but I am waiting to hear from work on the potential of transferring to the Japan office. The big issue is they can’t give an ironclad, contractual agreement about the plan we have laid out for transferring next May

If I back out from my student visa application, at this point extremely last minute, what are the chances I can get back into the rounds next or the following cycle? My understanding is backing out this last minute can be pretty damning to your chances of reapplying/doesn’t look good for you as an applicant

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