Hello r/njpw
It’s May, which means it’s time for my first block analysis post of the year. I’ll be breaking down the 31st Best of the Super Juniors tournament over the next few days as we begin the final third of the block phase.
We’re keeping the same format from last year’s BOSJ: two blocks of 10 with the top two advancing to a final playoff. As is usually the case when two wrestlers advance from a block, expect a lot of people to stay in the running for longer. That’s especially the case here in A Block, where the entire block is still in the running to qualify for the playoffs.
For those of you who are new to these, I make posts rounding up the possible outcomes for these round-robin tournaments. I look at the % odds of each team of making it out of the block phase (taking all results as equal), sometimes even taking draws into account (for this particular post, I won’t be doing that just yet).
As usual, [you may also view my BOSJ 31 results summary page here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oyGCGPPeZdeUNJUOjWIHctvEiLqny1TnK9s__R9f3u4/edit?usp=sharing&rm=minimal). I’m manually updating it as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a summary of the top 20 best matches of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings).
With all that being said, let’s have a look at the state of A Block.
# A Block Standings
|Name|Faction|Score|Record|Status|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Blake Christian|ROH|8|4-2|In|
|Clark Connors|BULLET CLUB War Dogs|8|4-2|In|
|Titan|Los Ingobernables de Japon|8|4-2|In|
|El Desperado|Main Unit|8|4-2|In|
|Kevin Knight|Main Unit|6|3-3|In|
|HAYATA|Pro Wrestling NOAH|6|3-3|In|
|TJP|UNITED EMPIRE|4|2-4|In|
|Kosei Fujita|TMDK|4|2-4|In|
|Yoshinobu Kanemaru|HOUSE OF TORTURE|4|2-4|Slim Odds (<1%)|
|BUSHI|Los Ingobernables de Japon|4|2-4|Slim Odds (<1%)|
A Block has kept things close. Only 4 points between the top and the bottom, and literally everyone still has a way to make the semi-finals, albeit with some fairing significantly better than others. So what do they got?
# 1) Blake Christian
* 8 pts: 4 wins, 2 losses
* 38.1% to go to the playoffs:
* 22.0% as #1
* 16.1% as #2
* Best Wins: Titan \[8\], Connors \[8\], Knight \[6\]
* Worst Losses: Despe \[8\], HAYATA \[6\]
While not a popular guy, Blake Christian has nonetheless managed to find success here in his first BOSJ appearance. He’s been a block leader since the start of the tournament, at times being the sole leader, but back-to-back losses have stymied his significant lead. That being said, he still currently has the best chance of making the playoffs in all of A Block, with big wins over fellow 8-pointers Clark Connors and Titan, though with a significant loss to El Desperado.
One of Blake Christian’s biggest strengths at the moment as far as points and records go is that all of his major match-ups have been settled. He’s wrestled everyone currently at 6 or 8 points, and he’s got a favorable record against them. This also means that all of his remaining matches are against people at the bottom of A Block: TJP on the 22nd, Bushi on the 26th, and Fujita on the 30th. These are all guys with losing records, so, on paper, Christian has arguably the easiest road to the playoffs. We’ll see if reality plays out that way.
# 2) Clark Connors
* 8 pts: 4 wins, 2 losses
* 37.7% to go to the playoffs:
* 22.1% as #1
* 15.6% as #2
* Best Wins: Titan \[8\], HAYATA \[6\]
* Worst Losses: Christian \[8\]
Sneaking under the radar among the top scorers of A Block is Clark Connors.
A Block’s War Dog has been slowly keeping pace with the competition, and he now finds himself in a very favorable position. It may not have seemed like that after losing his opening match to Blake Christian, but his controversial win over Titan has certainly changed that conversation.
However, his biggest test is yet to come, as he faces the favorite of A Block on the next show: El Desperado. With both guys ranking so high, someone is bound to take a tumble there. After that, he face his former LA Dojomate Kevin Knight, who isn’t too far behind. Finally, he ends his tournament against his Bullet Club cousin Yoshinobu Kanemaru. Can Connors conquer his competition?
# 3) Titan
* 8 points: 4 wins, 2 losses
* 33.5% to go to the playoffs
* 17.3% as #1
* 16.2% as #2
* Best Wins: Despe \[8\], Knight \[6\], HAYATA \[6\]
* Worst Losses: Christian \[8\], Connors \[8\]
Titan was another early favorite in A Block. Winning his opening match against Despe certainly put him in that position. However, despite maintaining a winning record, dropping back-to-back losses to Christian and Connors puts him in a bit of a risky position, because he might not make the playoffs even if he wins all his remaining matches, because Christian and Connors would overtake him if they both also make 14 pts.
That being said, he does have something going for him keeping him at #3. Like Christian, all his biggest match-ups are settled (though with a less favorable record that Christian’s), so all his remaining matches are also against wrestlers currently at 4-points: Fujita on the 22nd, Kanemaru on the 26th, and TJP on the 30th. It’s the same set of wrestlers as Christian, but swapping out Bushi for Kanemaru, so I’ll let you decide who has it “easier”. Still, is this enough to help Titan see a consecutive playoff appearance?
# 4) El Desperado
* 8 points: 4 wins, 2 losses
* 33.4% to go to the playoffs
* 20.2% as #1
* 13.2% as #2
* Best Wins: Christian \[8\]
* Worst Losses: Titan \[8\], Knight \[6\]
Rounding out the 8-pointers is everyone’s favorite: El Desperado,
It’s been an up-and-down tournament for Despe. While he’s never been too far behind, he’s stumbled at several key moments in the tournament thus far. First was against Titan, who kept him out of the finals last year, and second was against Kevin Knight in one of the bigger upsets of the tournament. It wasn’t until he beat block leader Blake Christian on the 19th and his former tag partner Yoshinobu Kanemaru on this past show that Despe finally managed to catch the block leaders.
Despe’s most critical match will be his next one, which is the aforementioned match with Clark Connors. While losing here won’t necessarily eliminate Despe from contention, h won’t be in good shape if he does. After that, it’s TJP on the 22nd and Hayata on the 30th. We’ll see if Despe can continue his momentum and make the playoffs again.
# 5) Kevin Knight
* 6 points: 3 wins, 3 losses
* 8.1% to go to the playoffs
* 2.9% as #1
* 5.2% as #2
* Best Wins: Despe \[8\]
* Worst Losses: Christian \[8\], Titan \[8\]
We move down to our 6-pointers and drop off significantly in terms of playoff odds with #5 in A Block: Kevin Knight.
Kevin Knight has had a helluva performance in this year’s BOSJ, putting on some of the best matches of the tournament, including a huge upset win over Despe. However, with 3 losses, including losses to Blake Christian and Titan, have pushed him down the rankings, and now he’ll need a bit of luck in order to make the playoffs.
Let’s talk about points. While it’s certainly possible to make the playoffs here in A Block with 10 points, it’s much more likely that the wrestlers going to the playoffs will have at least 12 points. For Kevin Knight and Hayata, that means winning all their matches. Thus, Knight essentially must run the gauntlet. To start with, our two 6-pointers will face-off, almost certainly eliminating one of them, so the pressure is doubly on. Should he survive that, he’s got Clark Connors on the 22nd, before closing out his tournament against Bushi.
# 6) HAYATA
* 6 points: 3 wins, 3 losses
* 7.3% to go to the playoffs
* 2.8% as #1
* 4.5% as #2
* Biggest Wins: Christian \[8\]
* Worst Losses: Titan \[8\], Connors \[8\]
Hayata is our other wrester at 6points in A Block. He’s in a very similar position to Kevin Knight. I think the only real difference is which wrestler they have an open match with. Knight has Connors as his big match, whereas Hayata will have Despe to contend with. Despe’s not in as strong of a position here in A Block (being the lowest of the 8-pointers), so Hayata’s overall odds suffer slightly.
However, that match will be Hayata’s last. He’ll have two other matches to get through before worrying about Despe. First is the match with Knight on the next show, and second is with Fujita. If he can get through those two, then the Despe match might become a solid catapult to launch him into the playoffs.
# 7) TJP
* 4 points: 2 wins, 4 losses
* 2.2% to go to the playoffs
* 0.3% as #1
* 1.9% as #2
* Biggest Wins: HAYATA \[6\]
* Worst Losses: Connors \[8\], Knight \[6\]
We move into the last group in A Block: the 4-pointers, and topping this group somewhat surprisingly is TJP.
Considering he was at the bottom of this block with no points for so long, it’s pretty impressive that TJP’s managed to stay afloat at this stage of the tournament. That’s a testament to how close things are in this Block, so much so that 10 points, which is TJP’s max score, is still a potential qualifying score for the playoffs.
It’s also because TJP has, I believe, the toughest final set of matches in A Block, because they’re all against guys currently at 8 points. TJP has Blake Christian on the next show, Despe on the 26th, and Titan on the last day. TJP needs to win every match from here on out, but if he can, he might just see the playoffs, and a potential Dominion Main Event, if he drops one, though, well, maybe he can spoil someone.
# 8) Kosei Fujita
* 4 points: 2 wins, 4 losses
* 1.5% to go to the playoffs
* 0.2% as #1
* 1.3% as #2
* Biggest Wins: Connors \[8\]
* Worst Losses: Despe \[8\], Knight \[6\]
Fujita has managed to stay alive in this tournament as well, despite only racking up sporadic wins and having my favorite match of the tournament.
Like TJP, Fujita too has a pretty tough road ahead of him filled with top dogs, with matches against Titan, HAYATA, and Christian, in that order. Wins over any of these would be a solid boost, but Fujita will need to beat all three.
# 9) Yoshinobu Kanemaru
* 4 points: 2 wins, 4 losses
* 0.5% to go to the playoffs
* 0.04% as #1
* 0.5% as #2
* Biggest Wins: Knight \[6\]
* Worst Losses: Christian \[8\], Despe \[8\], HAYATA \[6\]
Things get really rocky down here in the bottom of the block. Kanemaru has a less than 1% chance of making the playoffs, and that’s mostly because he has some bad losses. He’ll have a few more chances to turn that around, with matches against Titan on the 26th and Connors on the 30th, but before he can get to that, he has to face Bushi next in a battle for the bottom of the block.
# 10) BUSHI
* 4 points: 2 wins, 4 losses
* 0.2% to go to the playoffs
* 0.01% as #1
* 0.2% as #2
* Biggest Wins: N/A
* Worst Losses: Connors \[8\], Titan \[8\], Despe \[8\], HAYATA \[6\]
And down at the bottom of the barrel is Bushi. Bushi has no notable wins to his name in this tournament, and 4 significant losses. Despite that, he’s not completely out of the running yet, and still has a scant few ways to make the playoffs. He still has an open match against the top ranked guy in A Block, Blake Christian, as well a match with Kevin Knight to close his tournament, but those will be after his match with Kanemaru on the next show. We’ll see if he survives the night.
# What’s Next?
The biggest match on the next show for A Block is between El Desperado and Clark Connors. Both guys top the block, and so someone is gonna fall out of the top contendership with a loss here. Similarly, Kevin Knight and HAYATA will face off in what may end up being a do or die match for both.
Apart from that, we also have Blake Christian vs TJP and Titan vs Kosei Fujita in two matches where 8-pointers face 4-pointers. The guys at 4 points are gonna be desperate and hungry for a win if they wanna stay in the running, and taking down a top contender will only fuel that fire. Lastly, we will have BUSHI vs Yoshinobu Kanemaru, a match between the two lowest ranked guys in A Block.
That’ll be all for this post. The next show has both A and B Block, so things are gonna be a bit off balance. I might keep them separate because of that. In that case, I’ll prioritize the B Block post first since they’re a bit behind.
Until then, thanks for reading! See you next post.
by MarcoTalin