Hello r/njpw

It's that time of the year again, everyone. It's G1 season, and what a season it's been. A lot of people seem to have been enjoying this year's edition, for a few reasons.

Much to the delight of many, we're back to 10-man blocks this year, but with a twist! Unlike past 10-man block formats, we'll see 3 wrestlers from each block advance to the playoffs. The #2 and #3 of each block will have a quarter-final match, the winners of which will face off against their respective #1s in a semi-final. Then, the ultimate winner of each block will face off in the climax of the G1 Climax: a finals match to determine the ultimate winner of this years tournament.

This change in format has one big implication, and that's that there are three spots up for grabs to make it past the block phase. In all the tournaments I've done summaries for, only one or two spots were available. In fact, this'll be the first G1 since 2004 where we'll be taking more than two wrestlers per block to the final playoff round.

In addition to this being new territory for me, the biggest thing that this'll mean is that the floor for qualification is lower than ever. With this format, it's possible to have a losing record (8pts, or a 4-5 record) and still be eligible for the playoffs, given the right circumstances. This means that people will be in the running for much longer than usual, and the fields are gonna be bigger than ever heading into the home stretch, so expect a lot of people to still be fighting for spots even in the last few days of each block. Don't worry, though, as I'll be here to help you guys navigate the many possibilities that can come up.

For those of you who are new to these, I make posts rounding up the possible outcomes for these round-robin tournaments. I look at the % odds of each team of making it out of the block phase (taking all results as equal), sometimes even taking draws into account (for this particular post, I won't be doing that just yet).

Now, for those of you who are not new to these, you may notice that I'm doing this a bit earlier than usual. I've learned how to squeeze in more calculation, so I can get odds with four shows remaining. Still, there's literally a million ways this can go (and that's without taking time-limit or countout draws into account), so I won't be diving to deep into the details. Just a more surface-level look at different wrestlers chances and outlooks as we enter the back half of the block phase.

In addition, I also have a G1 Climax results summary Google doc available here that I'm manually updating as we go along the tournament. It contains the schedule of the matches, results, and a spoiler-free summary of the top 20 best matches of the block phase of the tournament (based on CageMatch Ratings), as well as the play-offs tree, which will be filled up once the qualified wrestlers are set.

With all that being said, let's kick things off, starting with the state of A Block.

A Block Standings

Like I said, we're just past the halfway point of the block phase, and with the lower floor for qualifications, we shouldn't be expecting anyone to be out of the race just yet. However, what we have seen is someone break away into the lead. The hierarchy at the top of the block is well-defined, but things get messy as you move down. Let's start with that leader …

1) EVIL

• 10 pts; 5 wins, 0 losses
• 96.3% to go to the playoffs
  • 63.2% as #1
  • 24.2% as #2
  • 8.9% as #3
• Best wins: Kidd [6], SANADA [4], Naito [4], Newman [4]
• Worst losses: none

Putting up a dominant display in this year's G1 thus far is EVIL. He is the only man in either block to hit 10 points and the only man to not have lost yet. He's pinned the IWGP World Heavyweight Champion, and he's nearly a shoo-in to make the playoffs, even at this relatively early stage of the block phase.

96.3% is a pretty percentage to have, but it's not quite a guarantee. One of the reasons he's not at 100% is because he hasn't quite cleared all of his closest rivals. He's yet to face ZSJ, who's just 2 points behind him, and while he has beaten Kidd, he hasn't faced Umino, who's on the same score. There's also 4 days left for A Block, which still leaves opportunity for him to be overtaken. Still, at this point, it's Evil's block to lose.

2) Zack Sabre Jr.

• 8 pts; 4 wins, 1 loss
• 74.8% to go to the playoffs
  • 26.4% as #1
  • 28.9% as #2
  • 19.5% as #3
• Best wins: Naito [4], Newman [4]
• Worst losses: Umino [6]

Taking up second place is the Frontman, Zack Sabre Jr. Although he stumbled a bit this past Monday against Shota Umino, he still has the 2nd highest score among anyone in the tournament, let alone A Block, so he's still in good shape to make the playoffs. ~75% is a good position to be in.

Obviously, his biggest issue at the moment is that loss to Umino, who's hot on his heels in points. He also doesn't have very many quality wins. All of his points come from the bottom half of the block, so he's still lacking for high-value wins (even if one of his current wins is over the IWGP World Heavyweight Champion).

However, again, the window for qualifiers this year is wide, and with a solid score base to work off of, building up high-value wins is totally within ZSJ's capabilities. With just a bit more effort, Zack may achieve that G1 Climax trophy that has eluded him all these years.

3) Gabe Kidd

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 2 losses
• 45.8% to go to the playoffs
  • 5.3% as #1
  • 20.1% as #2
  • 20.3% as #3
• Best wins: Umino [6], Takagi [4]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], SANADA [4]

War Ready Gabe Kidd is ready to see the playoffs. With a 45.8% chance to see past the block phase, Kidd is the first person on this list to benefit from the top 3 format, which almost doubles his chance of advancing. While his first place odds aren't so great, he's among the most likely competitors at the moment to take a spot in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Among everyone in A Block with at least 6 points, Kidd has the most settled matches. He's beaten fellow 6-pointer Shota Umino, but he's also lost to block leader Evil, which is part of why his odds of finishing at #1 are so low. That means his biggest match left is against fellow englishman ZSJ, but that match is still a few days away. We'll see if Kidd keep up his momentum and advance to the playoffs.

4) Shota Umino

• 6 pts; 3 wins, 2 losses
• 41.2% to go to the playoffs
  • 9.7% as #1
  • 14.7% as #2
  • 16.8% as #3
• Best wins: ZSJ [8], Takagi [4]
• Worst losses: Kidd [6], Newman [4]

Hot on Kidd's heels is Shota Umino, who's managed to keep pace with him in score.

Although the prior loss to Kidd hurts Umino's chances somewhat, he's not that far behind, being only a few percentage points behind in odds. This is aided by two factors: first is Umino's biggest win, as he is the only person in A Block so far to have beaten ZSJ, and second is Umino's remaining open match against block leader Evil, which will be his final match in the tournament. If he can notch another big win, while also making some points to catch up to the leaders in score, he'll have an easier time claiming #1 than Kidd.

However, in addition to needing to overcome these obstacles, Umino's biggest problem right now is that loss to Kidd. If Kidd keeps up with Umino in points, it could keep Umino out of 1st, 2nd, or even out of the playoffs altogether. While his odds aren't bad, Umino'll still need a bit of help and luck to make the playoffs.

5) SANADA

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 3 losses
• 18.6% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.9% as #1
  • 7.0% as #2
  • 10.7% as #3
• Best wins: Kidd [6], Newman [4]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], Naito [4]

We jump down to the cluster of 4-pointers now, and leading the group is Sanada. Despite having lost to Naito for the 3rd time this year in the main event of the last A Block show, Sanada still holds a solid presence in the block.

If we were still in a format where only one person from each block advanced to the playoffs, everyone at 4 points or less would be in the bubble. Fortunately for a lot of them, that's not what NJPW is doing, and so a lot of these 4-pointers have renewed hopes in catching that 3rd or even 2nd place spot. In Sanada's case that 2nd place spot is still attainable. Yes, he's lost to Evil, and while that hurts his chances at #1, a win over Gabe Kidd and open matches with Umino and ZSJ mean that Sanada's hopes of taking #2 are still alive and well. That win over Kidd is also the strongest win anyone at 4-points currently has, so he has a leg up on his peers in that regard. Yes, he has a loss to Naito, but he also has a win over Newman, so he still has some tie-breaking power.

We'll see if the former champion has a chance of making it back to the top of the mountain.

6) Tetsuya Naito

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 3 losses
• 16.5% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.2% as #1
  • 3.9% as #2
  • 12.4% as #3
• Best wins: SANADA [4]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], ZSJ [8], Takagi [4]

Things are not looking good for the IWGP World Heavyweight Champion. 6/10 isn't a place you'd expect from the top champion of New Japan, but in a highly competitive block like A Block, that's just how things've gone.

Losses to the top two wrestlers in the block hurt Naito's chances immensely. #1 is a far off dream, and #2 is a slim chance at best. However, among everyone at 4 pts, Naito has the best shot at taking #3, and that'd be just good enough to make the playoffs. That comes about through open matches against Umino & Kidd, as well as hi current best win against Sanada, the strongest 4-pointer at the moment. He just has to be careful not to lose to Callum Newman, or to be overtaken by his other loss Shingo Takagi. Still, his hopes are alive, and if he makes the playoffs, it'll be that way.

7) Callum Newman

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 3 losses
• 15.1% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.3% as #1
  • 3.7% as #2
  • 11.1% as #3
• Best wins: Umino [6], Takagi [4]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], ZSJ [8], SANADA [4]

For his first G1 Climax, Callum Newman is doing a pretty good job. After all, he's just a hair's breadth behind the IWGP champion.

If you look at Newman's and Naito's tournaments so far, they have a lot in common. They've both lost to the top 2 in the block, and they're both much more likely to finish at #3. In fact, Newman has a bit of a leg up on Naito, because he's already beaten Umino. The only reason Newman is slightly behind Naito is because their wins and losses are reversed, and Takagi is in a weaker position than Sanada right now. Otherwise, their probable roads to the playoffs are the same. If they keep pace with each other for the next few shows, and they both stay in contention, the eventual match between the two will likely be a do-or-die scenario. We'll see how young Newman does in the second half of his first G1.

8) Shingo Takagi

• 4 pts; 2 wins, 3 losses
• 12.4% to go to the playoffs
  • 1.4% as #1
  • 3.9% as #2
  • 7.0% as #3
• Best wins: Naito [4]
• Worst losses: Kidd [6], Umino [6], Newman [4]

The last of our 4-pointers is the Rampage Dragon Shingo Takagi.

It has been a rough tournament for Takagi thus far. He peaked at the onset of the tournament with a big win over Naito, but apart from a second win over Great-O-Khan, it's been significant loss after significant loss It started with Shota Umino, and most recently came from Gabe Kidd. Now that Naito doesn't even rank that highly, that first win now seems quite meager, and Takagi finds himself at the bottom of the 4-pointers.

However, all is not lost. He has two big opportunitites ahead of him, those being open matches against the two current leaders of A Block: Evil and ZSJ. If he can notch some wins over those two, he'll have some significant tie-breaking power if he racks up some points as well. Now, having a 4-6-point deficit between himself and those leaders means that wins alone will not be enough to suddenly catapult him into the playoffs. However, with the losses he's accumulated already, losing even one of those matches will pretty much kill his hopes, so he needs those high-value wins.

9) Jake Lee

• 2 pts; 1 wins, 4 losses
• 4.0% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.01% as #1
  • 0.8% as #2
  • 3.1% as #3
• Best wins: SANADA [4]
• Worst losses: EVIL [10], ZSJ [8], Naito [4]

Boy, what an introduction Jake Lee has had to New Japan in this G1 Climax.

He peaked early in the tournament, beating Sanada in quick fashion, but after that, he's been on a losing streak, and they haven't been minor losses either. He's lost to the A Block leaders Evil and ZSJ, as well as IWGP champion Naito. The most recent loss to O-Khan was just the shit icing on the shit cake.

With this record, Jake Lee really has no alternative but to reverse his fortunes, go on a win streak, and hope for the best. While 8-points is technically a potential qualifying score, Lee's losses make that prospect a tough ask. 10 points with some wins over Umino & Kidd, hoping that they're the key players towards the end, and that he doesn't get pushed out of the top 3 by the block leaders his prior losses. That's the long and short of it.

10) Great-O-Khan

• 2 pts; 1 wins, 4 losses
• 1.5% to go to the playoffs
  • 0.003% as #1
  • 0.2% as #2
  • 1.3% as #3
• Best wins: Lee [2]
• Worst losses: ZSJ [8], Kidd [6], Umino [6], Takagi [4]

Lastly, to close off A Block, we have Great-O-Khan. For a time, he was the only man in the tournament without points until he changed that status by beating the guy in A Block with just one win, Jake Lee. Now they both sit at the bottom of the block.

Really, what I said applies to O-Khan. His situation is just more dire because he has more bad losses. ZSJ, Kidd, and Umino are bad losses to have at this stage in the tournament, and potentially down the line as well. He does still have an open match with Evil on the next show, so that might boost his chances a bit. Still, he's at 1.5% to make any spot in the playoffs, so things aren't looking good for O-Khan.

What's Next?

This Saturday's show won't have any of top-of-the-block clashes. We'll see the man at the top of the block, EVIL, face the man at the bottom of the block, Great-O-Khan. While there is potential for EVIL to extend his win streak, he's so far ahead of most of the block that this result by itself doesn't really change that much. #1 is already practically a two-man race between EVIL and ZSJ, so it just solidifies everyone else's resolve that they'd be fighting for #2 and #3. Still, an upset is always fun.

The rest of the matches will feature our 4-pointers, who are gonna be our focal point for the evening. With point discrepancies getting bigger and bigger, it's becoming more and more important for these guys to keep up with the leaders. While the 3-qualifier format allows for more possibilities, having 4 people ahead of you in points is still very dangerous, especially if the gap widens too much late in the block phase. Anyone left with 4 points or less by the end of the night is almost certainly gonna drop to single-digit odds (or worse).

So what's in store for them? Well, they'll all be spread out across different matches. First, Callum Newman will take on the other guy at the bottom of the block, Jake Lee. We'll also see Tetsuya Naito take on Gabe Kidd and SANADA take on Shota Umino. Lastly, in the main event, we'll have Shingo Takagi take on Zack Sabre Jr. in order to keep his playoff hopes alive. Those three top matches in particular look good on paper, so it should be a fun night of matches.

That'll do for this post. I'll be working on the B Block analysis next, and looking at the state of it, that one's a bit more complicated.

Until next time, thanks for reading! See you next post.