A country’s largest and most economically productive cities are always going to grow faster than the country as a whole. If Japan had a growing or even a flat population, Tokyo would continue to grow. I really don’t want that.
Aren’t the trains crowded enough already? Many times I’m pushed up against a bunch of people, and that’s if I can even get on a train during rush hours sometimes.
And housing, I actually like the fact that a single person with a median income can live within 30 mins of the capital and largest city by themselves . In Canada, Australia, the UK, and other developed countries with high population growth, a single person earning the median income is going to live with roommates or on the outskirts of ANY city, and still struggle. Japan basically the only developed country without a housing crisis.
Not to mention, a labor shortage is the only way there’s an incentive for productivity to rise in this often times unproductive and inefficient country.
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The economy needs to be restructured to support it is why it scares people.
As an individual, it is great! As a country/ population, it is uncharted territory and scary.
Most people when making the points you present here are missing the point.
What you like is “less people” not “declining population.”
The rate of decline is the problem, not that there will be less people living in Japan. Countryside villages and towns will end up being deserted in 20-30 years and those who are the few remaining members that have nowhere else to go will likely suffer. The towns will rot, leaving behind plastic trash and things that will pollute the earth. This isn’t Japan returning to a pristine environment. Look at it like this, this isn’t a scenario like hikers packing out all their trash, but rather them just leaving it there because they all fell off a cliff.
A smaller population may bring about those benefits you mention, but not a declining one. The problem doesn’t go away either, because the issue is compounded generationally. Less kids now means less people that can have kids in the future, etc. etc. Growing old in Japan is going to be hard for a long time, not to mention the unsustainable pension and healthcare model the country currently has. Labor shortage just may mean less trained doctors for when you need one, more expensive goods due to economies of scale backfiring in the shrinking domestic market, etc., etc.
And this is coming from an immigrant…now that makes sense!
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If we were to go all Logan’s Run and just eliminate people after a certain age then ignoring the whole ethical dilemma of such a system it would be great to have a shrinking population because there would just be fewer people to support. But we don’t have a Logan’s Run situation, hopefully we never will, and elderly people require a lot of support, both financially and in terms of people to care for them.
The declining demographics has been used as an excuse by the ruling junta for their extraordinarily poor economic performance for the last 30 years. For every year bar one, the population of major cities like Tokyo has actually increased. It’s in the deadweight countryside that was probably always a financial burden on the economy that the numbers have tumbled. If a falling population was the real issue then why haven’t wages increased more over the last 30 years?
I don’t think you really understand the problem.
Not happy per se, but I think it’s absolutely frickin’ ridiculous that the population decline, 42 years into the start of the trend, is still a hot button news item and the solution to basing an economy on the idea of nonstop growth to economy and population continues to be bemoan that there aren’t more babies. I’m not seeing the point of leadership if this is all they’ve got.
Japan’s issue is that everybody flocks to a single city. It would not feel so crowded and overpopulated if everybody were more spread out evenly across various towns and cities. So I agree with you that Tokyo is insane and way too crowded but I don’t think population decline will fix that much, at least not anytime soon, it might make it even worse before it gets better, as more old people die off in smaller towns and cities and especially the countryside and the young people continue moving to Tokyo because their hometown is shrinking and dying
The reason the government is always pushing constant growth is because Japan is massively in debt, and they, like other countries, plan to repay that by taxing future citizens.
No future citizens, no tax dollars, no paying down the debt.
A declining population also results in an aging voter base and an increasingly out-of-touch, geriatric leadership class. Neither of which are particularly good for the long-term health of the country as it’s very hard to make a better future when those in power have no stake in it.
Nah I’m in the same boat. I love it. Affordable housing, reasonable cost of living, and cities are still thriving. Too bad for the countryside but living in the countryside is wasteful to begin with. Cities are far more efficient and ecological. Let the countryside die and cities grow.
I don’t buy the whole demographic bomb boogieman either. Japanese people aren’t backing down from working until older and older ages. It’s already happening right now. And if somebody is working, it doesn’t matter how old they are, they’re still productive.
Healthcare and housing is currently FAR more accessible in Japan compared to Canada, even though Canada is importing like 1 million immigrants a year. So which model is really working?
This is a very short term way of thinking. In the long run, rapid population decline is an economic disaster.
You like the low density of population, not declining population.
Less people around may be convenient, but not enough people to support infrastructure and the economy isn’t.
Labor shortage caused by the shortage of jobs paying living wages isn’t helping anyone,
This feels like it was written by someone who lives in Tokyo and can only imagine life in Tokyo.
“If the population increases, Tokyo will get more crowded! And that’ll suck for me!”
The problem is we tend to think that all other things are equal ; that other nice aspects of Japan stay the same but now we have the benefit of affordable housing and less crowds.
It doesn’t work that way in the longer term.
The “other things” like a decent universal HC system and a pension system are going to change. The educated Japan is changing.
* I full expect that retirement will be 70 soon. And pension benefits could potentially be cut.
* There is talk that the HC system will change – think: higher co-pays for example.
* Higher education is already in a terrible way. Tons of closures of 2-year schools; merging and some closures of 4-year schools, and the schools are now accepting 90% of applicants by lowering their standards.
* The great transit system looks ok now, but I suspect eventually we will see decreases train routes. That might be 10 years away, but I do think it happens.
* Services will eventually start to skew to what is in demand from middle age and old people.
So you get the decline in population, but necessarily not with the current educated, somewhat genteel, orderly society with the lowish income inequality you see now.