Since I moved here I have received countless ”official” warnings about typhoons/tropical cyclones and warnings about heavy rain in general from both my university staff and the Japanese alert apps. Today I received another one both via the app several times (spamming me essentially) and the university about a typhoon in the specific region I am in. It was barely a light drizzle and it has completely stopped. When I check other overseas weather sources for this area it shows it is going to be light rain and that it will stop soon enough. The warnings I received state, however, that the typhoon will continue all weekend. I strongly doubt it.
I have zero faith in the warnings anymore because they have literally been wrong every single time. They are becoming like the ’boy who cried wolf’. It does not help that the alerts spam me every other hour either.
Anyone else feel this way?
22 comments
Are they warnings, or advisories?
Japan is very cautious, and it’s always safety first. You will grow to appreciate it!
I have this running joke going with my wife that whoever comes up with the weather forecast for our area (Tokyo) is basically engaging in a 24/7/365 hedge bet.
Typical day:
Wake up around 7. Look at weather app. “100% chance of rain absolutely guaranteed, wouldn’t be surprising if the entirety of Honshu is underwater right now”. Look out of window. Slightly grey, not raining.
9 AM. Look at weather app. “At 11:00 am there will be sixteen metres of rain in three seconds. Hope you can swim”. Look out the window at 11:00 am. It’s drizzling at best. Look again at weather app. “At 14:00 there will be a flood such that has not been seen since biblical times”. And on it goes.
Typhoons are serious business, you wouldn’t want to get caught off guard, even if your particular area is fine, somewhere 3km away can be pelted with heavy rain. The wind is also a huge problem with typhoons
Turn it off then. The authorities and weather forecasters err on the side of caution, as they should. It all depends on your local geography. Where I live I have zero risk of flooding or mudslides but many areas in Japan are at risk during heavy rain. Il
Circumstances obviously differ by location but I recommend taking a bit of time to review the hazard map for your area. Specifically for flooding and landslides.
Even if your area doesn’t have heavy rainfall, the rainfall brought through by typhoons can cause rivers to be inundated with water which floods areas further downstream.
During typhoon 19 of 2019, the Kawasaki area received a lot of rainfall, but not enough to cause immediate danger. However, reservoirs and dams upstream of the Tama river quickly reached capacity and had to release water. This caused the Tama river and other branches to be dangerously full, and even breached the flood barrier in a few areas. I know the Sumida river was also cause for concern.
Whilst these alerts are numerous and seem unnecessary, they often aren’t there to indicate immediate danger to you. They serve as a reminder to be vigilant because the situation can change very quickly.
Please don’t see this message as scaremongering — just a reason why the alerts may seem a little too conservative. The majority of cases, the alerts come to nothing and are an annoyance. But better to be safe than sorry.
Edit:
I’m obviously talking from my local perspective. Other areas were more heavily affected.
I mean the storm is still far out so it hasn’t reached „Japan“ yet. So makes sense that you haven’t felt it yet. You can google it’s current trajectory.
And no, I don’t feel that way. Better safe than sorry. Japan has plenty of floods and landslides because of typhoons. Predicting weather is not an accurate business, so I don’t know why you’re so worked up about it. Turn off the notifications
I’m in Tokyo and it is raining very heavily. This is also before the typhoon even arrives. Last I heard it will hit Tokyo sometime during the night.
And every time something they didn’t predict or warned for happens they got a huge backlash for not being careful enough and not advertising enough on the risk.
Every year Japan has a bucket load of weather related deaths and disasters.
Because there are people out there who sue the government, or whatever agency they feel angry at, for not holding their hands and mothering them. So everyone needs to cover their behinds
Typhoon is unpredictable, a light shift in its position can mean extreme winds and rain or just a drizzle and some nice breeze. It’s better to be prepared and it turned out to be weak sauce, rather than be caught by surprise. When the wind or rain starts to pick up, it can be very sudden and people can be caught up in places where you don’t want to be stuck in.
I grew up in a city susceptible to Typhoons as well and our forecast and warnings are often like that too. Of course Japan turns it up to 11 but I’m fine with that really. Just check the forecast when you receive a warning and be prepared. No need to be overly panicked.
My theory is that the Meteorological Agency in Japan got some flack after the 2011 earthquake for not predicting it that now they label everything as an impending disaster.
It’s kind of a joke, but I think it’s also kind of true.
I am wondering the same thing recently. The best one so far was during the last typhoon, it said it would rain heavily 4 days in a row. Not a single drop in the end.
Have you been outside today? Like 10km away from you and it’s cool and calm one minute then pouring and heavy wind the next. Please forgive meteoroligists for not being completely psychic
The last few years have been very quiet for typhoons. Prior to covid we’d have at least 2 or 3 typhoon days a year and Aichi would be the landing point for 1 or 2 typhoons.
The thing with typhoons is that depending on which side you are of it will change what ‘weather’ an area will have. It was thought the current typhoon would make land fall towards Chiba, but its looking like it will make landfall in Shizuoka.
Quite often the area where the eye of the storm hits is relatively calm, its the areas further afield that have problem.
I remember about 7 or 8 years ago a typhoon directly hit Nagoya city. Didn’t really do much in terms of damage. However, Arashiyama in Kyoto got a crap ton of rain and flooded even though it was not in the eye of the storm.
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Its also a good excuse to go home early today…… Don’t worry, the conbini will still be open for supplies.
As someone else said, shit can hit the fan very quickly when it comes to nature/natural disasters. What seems like innocuous rain might end up flooding somewhere you wouldn’t expect or cause a landslide etc.
I have to admit I don’t know the refuge areas in my locale, however I have seen twister, volcano, deep impact, and twin peaks. 👍
it’s hedging
if something really serious happens – they could claim they have exercised their due diligence to warn you about it
if nothing happens – well, they warned you just in case
Yeah. It’s yet another disappointment. Just once I’d love to see a monster typhoon of biblical ferocity scream through the Kanto region.
(of course I don’t want anyone to be hurt)
As a reference, what can happen when they’re right:
https://www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/articles/13058614
TBF the typhoon was pretty bad in Chiba, had to wade through a few big puddles on the way to work. The warnings could also be to expect thingsto be late, a lot of the Tokyo trains are still running late, rather than just damage etc.
Plus I’ve never actually received a typhoon alert, did you sign up for them maybe?
Use them warnings to keep an eye out on things.
Just because most cars stop for red traffic lights doesn’t mean one should stop checking whether they truly do so before crossing there.
Caution is best. A lot of the alerts are for quite wide areas, too. I live in an almost strangely unaffected part of Japan for earthquakes and typhoon – we have them as such, but we’re in a big mountain basin and the many surrounding kms of mountains soak up a lot of the impact from any earthquake not directly below us, and the typhoons tend to blow out on them before they reach us. We’re also far enough from the foot of said mountains that there isn’t really a landslide risk for most. Most times we get a typhoon alert, I wake up to blue skies or drizzle. That said. Once or twice, the alerts have been accurate and we’ve had sudden wind gusts and severe flooding. It’s always best to be prepared; use it as an opportunity to review what you would need if it WAS a disaster, where your nearest shelter is, evac routes, etc. It’s frankly astonishing how poorly prepared some are for when something DOES happen, and it really can be a life-or-death matter.