Right now 1 dollar is 151 yen. Even in 2007 when yen became really weak it only reached about 140 yen per dollar then it fell to 70 yen per dollar. Will yen continue to become weaker?
It reached 358 yen to a dollar back in the 70s so there is really no ceiling.
[deleted]
Depends on a lot of factors.
Nobody knows, and anyone who says they know is lying
The projections show that it will just get worse. Beginning of 2024 we’ll see it at 160 yen per USD. In a couple years up to 180. Although those are predictions that are not set in stone, I don’t intend to stay and find out.
No one really knows for sure, but I’ve seen a few reputed economists saying the yen will weaken to the 160 range in 2024.
Can someone give me some insight on whether this is a good or bad thing for Japan?
It’ll get worse until Japan starts to modernize again. The cool thing about Japan though is that when it does make changes, it’s generally really quick. Unless you’re dealing in foreign currency often though, it’s not super relevant until inflation gets much worse. In a cost of living comparison to my home, I’m still coming out ahead.
Most currencies are continuously depreciated against US Dollar. The current situation indicates that Japan has fallen into the category of ordinary countries, so JPY is probably going to become even weaker. The Japanese culture still shines, but the economy will never rise again.
A key problem for the yen, amongst others, is that Japan does not have the export engine it had in the past. Higher exports relative to imports will tend to cause the currency to appreciate (short of manipulation by central banks).
Japan’s largest export is cars. As and if the world moves to EVs or alternative energy vehicles, the R&D advantage Japan build over the years (engine design and engine related sub-systems), is no longer relevant. The Japanese market will likely lose in Asia and Europe to competition from China on the EV front.
It is more complex than this, but Japan’s economic engine, as far as exports are concerned, is under threat.
So, short of intervention and other world events, would expect yen to weaken.
Yes, it will probably reach 155. It might even go higher in the future.
I wonder if any large scale protest will happen in Japan.
They are intentionally trying to hold it there. They don’t want to match US Fed policy, but also don’t want to increase the demand for manufacturing inputs by the yen been weak. That would push already difficult fuel prices higher.
You’ll need to go back further than 2007 to get a realistic picture. Historical numbers are between 70 to 220~. It is less about what the Japanese government is doing and more about what the US Fed is doing. US fed doesn’t want their inflation. BoJ does.
As long as USD interest rates are high it will be weak
The person who could answer that with certainty would already be a trillionaire. In other words, no one knows.
The JPY has a history of weakening slowly over time (what we are seeing now), followed by sudden strengthening due to unexpected events. So the yen might weaken further, but then there might be an unexpected event (quake such as in 1995 and 2011, financial crash elsewhere like 2008, etc) that triggers a sudden reversal.
In the end it is all speculation. No one can predict FX markets.
I pulled out 10,000 at 7/11 today and it was only $62 usd 🙈
Just gonna go grab my crystal ball…
The govt can’t rise interest rates without bankrupting the banks who own tons of JP bonds. Their value would tumble hard.
Yes
Yes, it will, japan just injected billions into the main banks to give some breath, do not save money, inflation will evaporate any profit, you have to invest,
Why take the risk. 151 = $1 is a great deal. I just bought a house for 35% cheaper than it would have been 2 years ago.
We’re on the path to become third world country now.
Will the yen become weaker? Will people who don’t live in Japan stop posting crap in r/japanlife? Who knows!
I can say with confidence: Yes, it will become weaker….. or stronger…. or it stays the same.
1USD =200 yen isn’t impossible. It’s a certainty. It’s more of When not if. Yen should really be trading around 173ish area but it’s not. Japan is famous for its economy acting extremely different, illogical and against all norms. BoJ&MoF are really one in the same entity. They’re also fine with yen getting weaker just not at neck breaking speeds, I.E . Yen goes from 150 to 165 in 3 days. That is a real possibility with all the Hedggies building short positions against the Yen. 150-165 over the course of a few months is okay.
It will get stronger whenever the us cuts interest rates. Analysts expected it this year but it’s not going to happen and they adjusted their estimates to last half of next year. Before the cuts the yen could potentially get weaker but after the cuts start it should get stronger.
29 comments
All signs point to yes
It went to only $1=124 yen in 2007.
It reached 358 yen to a dollar back in the 70s so there is really no ceiling.
[deleted]
Depends on a lot of factors.
Nobody knows, and anyone who says they know is lying
The projections show that it will just get worse. Beginning of 2024 we’ll see it at 160 yen per USD. In a couple years up to 180. Although those are predictions that are not set in stone, I don’t intend to stay and find out.
No one really knows for sure, but I’ve seen a few reputed economists saying the yen will weaken to the 160 range in 2024.
I think there is a high possibility of 155
https://preview.redd.it/g0z0ghe2jxzb1.png?width=2088&format=png&auto=webp&s=3abf3a5b5b0577e556059f1f915280d8b428360e
Can someone give me some insight on whether this is a good or bad thing for Japan?
It’ll get worse until Japan starts to modernize again. The cool thing about Japan though is that when it does make changes, it’s generally really quick. Unless you’re dealing in foreign currency often though, it’s not super relevant until inflation gets much worse. In a cost of living comparison to my home, I’m still coming out ahead.
Most currencies are continuously depreciated against US Dollar. The current situation indicates that Japan has fallen into the category of ordinary countries, so JPY is probably going to become even weaker. The Japanese culture still shines, but the economy will never rise again.
A key problem for the yen, amongst others, is that Japan does not have the export engine it had in the past. Higher exports relative to imports will tend to cause the currency to appreciate (short of manipulation by central banks).
Japan’s largest export is cars. As and if the world moves to EVs or alternative energy vehicles, the R&D advantage Japan build over the years (engine design and engine related sub-systems), is no longer relevant. The Japanese market will likely lose in Asia and Europe to competition from China on the EV front.
It is more complex than this, but Japan’s economic engine, as far as exports are concerned, is under threat.
So, short of intervention and other world events, would expect yen to weaken.
Yes, it will probably reach 155. It might even go higher in the future.
I wonder if any large scale protest will happen in Japan.
They are intentionally trying to hold it there. They don’t want to match US Fed policy, but also don’t want to increase the demand for manufacturing inputs by the yen been weak. That would push already difficult fuel prices higher.
You’ll need to go back further than 2007 to get a realistic picture. Historical numbers are between 70 to 220~. It is less about what the Japanese government is doing and more about what the US Fed is doing. US fed doesn’t want their inflation. BoJ does.
As long as USD interest rates are high it will be weak
The person who could answer that with certainty would already be a trillionaire. In other words, no one knows.
The JPY has a history of weakening slowly over time (what we are seeing now), followed by sudden strengthening due to unexpected events. So the yen might weaken further, but then there might be an unexpected event (quake such as in 1995 and 2011, financial crash elsewhere like 2008, etc) that triggers a sudden reversal.
In the end it is all speculation. No one can predict FX markets.
I pulled out 10,000 at 7/11 today and it was only $62 usd 🙈
Just gonna go grab my crystal ball…
The govt can’t rise interest rates without bankrupting the banks who own tons of JP bonds. Their value would tumble hard.
Yes
Yes, it will, japan just injected billions into the main banks to give some breath, do not save money, inflation will evaporate any profit, you have to invest,
Why take the risk. 151 = $1 is a great deal. I just bought a house for 35% cheaper than it would have been 2 years ago.
We’re on the path to become third world country now.
Will the yen become weaker? Will people who don’t live in Japan stop posting crap in r/japanlife? Who knows!
I can say with confidence: Yes, it will become weaker….. or stronger…. or it stays the same.
1USD =200 yen isn’t impossible. It’s a certainty. It’s more of When not if.
Yen should really be trading around 173ish area but it’s not. Japan is famous for its economy acting extremely different, illogical and against all norms. BoJ&MoF are really one in the same entity. They’re also fine with yen getting weaker just not at neck breaking speeds, I.E . Yen goes from 150 to 165 in 3 days. That is a real possibility with all the Hedggies building short positions against the Yen.
150-165 over the course of a few months is okay.
It will get stronger whenever the us cuts interest rates. Analysts expected it this year but it’s not going to happen and they adjusted their estimates to last half of next year. Before the cuts the yen could potentially get weaker but after the cuts start it should get stronger.